The possibility of Trump's return to the presidency is a major topic of discussion at Davos.
- "The only question I've received while strolling on the Davos Promenade today is about his return," said Tim Adams, president of the Institute of International Finance, to CNBC on Tuesday.
- Some White House business participants are already preparing for a change at Davos.
The potential reelection of Donald Trump as president of the United States is a topic of discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, despite his absence from the event.
"The only question I've received while strolling on the Davos Promenade today is about his return," said Tim Adams, president of the Institute of International Finance, to CNBC on Tuesday.
He added, "I believe there is significant interest in that question, and what does it mean, as well as who would hold key positions."
Earlier this week, Trump set a record for victory margins at the Iowa caucuses, winning the event. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis came in a distant second, while former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley finished third.
The Iowa vote was viewed as the initial significant trial in the Republican presidential campaign race prior to the 2024 election. With Trump currently leading the Republican field, the upcoming November election is predicted to be a rematch between the former president and the Democratic incumbent, Joe Biden.
Some Davos attendees are already strategizing their businesses in anticipation of a potential Republican president in the White House.
According to Takeshi Niinami, CEO of Suntory, since President Trump's time in office, his primary concern has been trade. As a result, we can anticipate that trade problems will be extremely severe.
He announced that his company is increasing its resource allocation in the United States to safeguard against trade conflicts.
Suntory aims to increase its sales beyond China and expand its market in the United States, where it is one of the main customers. To achieve this, the company has developed scenarios to respond to any leadership changes that may occur.
Over the past year, the U.S. Congress has been plagued by uncertainties, including shifts in House leadership, disagreements over budgeting and foreign policy priorities, among other challenges.
How would a new U.S. leader interact with China, given the years of tension between Washington and Beijing, is a major concern for Bill Winters, CEO of Standard Chartered.
The top bank CEO stated that the slight reengagement observed through the Biden administration is a sign that the U.S. is seeking to stabilize its relations with China, as indicated by recent trips by U.S. officials to the country.
Winters stated that if Trump is elected president, it is likely that he will be a transactional leader, and there will be a transaction somewhere that maintains the economy's stability without fundamentally altering the relationship. However, it is essential to monitor closely, as there may be unintended consequences or accidents.
What does a Trump return mean for U.S. fiscal policy? According to the IIF's Adams, the world has a debt problem, with the highest levels of debt in a non-war period in modern history, affecting both corporations, households, sovereigns, and sub-sovereigns.
The U.S. is facing a significant fiscal issue, with a deficit of 7% of GDP. To address this problem, we must prioritize financial responsibility and work towards putting our fiscal house in order.
Despite being in Davos, the conversation among two attendees remained focused on the latest developments in U.S. politics, with one expressing his dissatisfaction with the possibility of another Trump election loss to Biden.
“Nothing gets done in U.S. politics anymore,” the attendee said.
EU concerned about U.S. election
While the discussion about the U.S. election is widespread, the EU has expressed concerns and is preparing for any outcome.
In 2016, political experts criticized the European Union for not taking the election of Trump seriously. The EU and Trump had numerous disagreements, primarily regarding trade and the significance of multilateral institutions.
Vera Jourova, European Commission vice president, stated in Davos that the U.S. election will certainly have an impact on the EU.
If Mr. Trump becomes president, there may be a strengthening of Russia and an increase in Putin's desire to annex more territory, which could endanger the security of our member states. As a result, we are preparing for any possible outcome.
— CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed to this report.
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