Uber and Lyft follow Tesla's lead in disappointing investors with their lackluster performance.
The unveiling of 's hyped robotaxi posed a threat to 's ride-sharing aspirations, but it has turned into a boon for the stock instead.
On Friday, Uber shares surged more than 9% on renewed enthusiasm that the company is well-positioned to advance its autonomous vehicle offerings, pushing the stock to a 52-week high and leading the S&P 500 higher during the session. Despite initial investor excitement leading up to Thursday's event, Uber shares had been falling in early August and mid-September.
Uber's stock has experienced a significant increase of nearly 22% over the past month and about 38% for the year, while Waymo, another major AV player, is also surging about 10% on Friday. In contrast, Tesla's shares are declining during Friday's trading session and have lost more than 11% this year, significantly underperforming both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, which have each gained around 22% so far this year.
The excitement surrounding Tesla's highly anticipated cybercab has diminished due to a lack of information on its latest full self-driving technology advancements and the company's failure to provide details on its ridesharing service strategy or financials, among other investor expectations.
Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni stated in a Friday note that UBER's best-case outcome is TSLA's toothless taxi, as the electric car maker set ambitious targets but showed little feasibility signs.
"TSLA's lack of verifiable evidence of progress toward L3 autonomous technology makes it challenging to evaluate the feasibility of its targets, as there is no precedent for achieving higher levels of autonomy using a vision-only approach instead of a sensor-fusion approach," Colantuoni stated. "We believe this helps alleviate the ongoing overhang on UBER's stock resulting from TSLA's aspirations in the robotaxi space."
The Jefferies analyst maintained his buy rating and $100 price target, implying a potential increase of approximately 28% from the previous day's closing price.
Uber's total addressable market could expand with the existence of robotaxis, as a supply increase would eventually lead to lower-priced autonomous vehicle offerings that expand the use-cases for rideshare, according to Colantuoni.
According to Jefferies analyst, AV developers are likely to partner with rideshare players rather than pursue standalone fleets. UBER, in particular, is well-positioned to help AV developers support sustainable growth by optimizing logistics, providing fleet management expertise, and navigating local regulations, among other benefits.
Although Tesla is determined to create its robotaxi fleet without partnering with existing rideshare platforms, Colantuoni predicts that it may eventually need to consider this possibility.
Tesla may not fully recognize the challenges of expanding a robotaxi fleet and may struggle to do so without partnering with Uber and Lyft to provide demand, according to the expert.
Uber could benefit from the Tesla event, according to Bank of America analyst Justin Post, who reiterated his buy rating on the stock on Friday. In the long term, Post believes that competition between Tesla, Waymo, and other AV providers in California could benefit Uber, as it could potentially partner with multiple providers. Additionally, Post speculated that owners of Tesla's cybercab could one day put their cars on a rideshare network like Uber or Lyft.
Although investors anticipate minimal competition from Tesla in the long term (5+ years), we were aware of a CyberCab prototype and the event lasted only 19 minutes with fewer concrete details and timelines than expected for Uber.
Toni Sacconaghi of Bernstein found Tesla's event to be "underwhelming and stunningly absent in detail," which supports the bull case on other major AV players.
Uber and Lyft can benefit from partnering with AV makers, according to Sacconaghi, who reiterated his outperform rating on Uber and market perform rating on Lyft. He added that over time, these partnerships can add value for those operating fixed fleets.
Nearly 9% of Lyft shares have declined year to date, with less than a third of analysts recommending a buy. According to FactSet, the average price target suggests a potential upside of approximately 6%.
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