U.S. allies could face challenges with Trump 2.0's increased emphasis on tariff negotiations.

U.S. allies could face challenges with Trump 2.0's increased emphasis on tariff negotiations.
U.S. allies could face challenges with Trump 2.0's increased emphasis on tariff negotiations.
  • Trump's campaign has shifted from viewing American allies in Europe and Asia as partners to treating them as trade rivals and potential tariff targets, a departure from traditional U.S. policy.
  • The former president believes his protectionist economic policies will revive U.S. manufacturing, but mainstream economists and trade experts contend they will result in higher prices and trade conflicts.

It seems that Donald Trump, known for his outspokenness regarding a protectionist trade policy, has shifted the focus of his agenda from China to some of the U.S.'s closest allies.

At a campaign event in Savannah, Georgia, on Tuesday, the Republican presidential nominee stated that he would expand on his tariff policies from his first term to move manufacturing jobs from foreign countries, including both allies and adversaries.

A mass exodus of manufacturing from China to Pennsylvania, Korea to North Carolina, Germany to Georgia will occur, according to him in his mostly economic-centered speech.

He stated that he desired German car companies to be American car companies and construct their plants in the US.

Trump's first term saw him impose billions of dollars in duties on Chinese goods to address an unfair trade balance. Trump has stated that he may impose new tariffs on imports from China at rates of 60% or higher.

Trump's "America First" policy could make U.S. allies a key target, with potential tariffs of up to 20% on imported goods from all countries.

Trump stated at a rally in Wisconsin that our allies have treated us badly, even worse than our enemies.

"We protect them on the military, but they betray us on trade. We won't let it happen anymore. We're going to become a tariff nation," he stated.

Trump's earlier statements about Taiwan accused it of taking "100%" of U.S. chip business and suggested that the democratically governed island should pay the U.S. for its defense.

Nick Marro, Lead for Global Trade at Economist Intelligence, stated that Trump's recent statements indicate he is intensifying his approach of applying economic and diplomatic pressure on U.S. allies, whom he accuses of "free-riding."

Japan is concerned about the possibility of another "transactional" Trump Presidency and his mention of 100% tariffs on certain car imports. This uncertainty about the future of the next five years is causing concern among Japanese automakers.

The risky aspect of Trump's tariff proclivity is that other countries won't remain passive. Retaliation by U.S. trade partners, whether through reciprocal or retaliatory tariffs or non-tariff measures, is a potential consequence of this.

On Tuesday, Trump announced his plans to revive manufacturing in the U.S. through tax cuts, special economic zones, and tax incentives for companies relocating production.

According to Stephen Weymouth, a professor of international political economy at Georgetown University, these policies may draw some manufacturing industries back to the U.S., particularly those that are sensitive to trade barriers.

Nevertheless, these plans are unlikely to result in a significant reshoring of industries due to the intricacies of global supply chains and higher labor costs in the U.S., he stated.

Stephen Roach, an economist, stated on CNBC that Trump's tariffs would negatively impact America's trade partners and only increase the costs of goods for American consumers and manufacturers, which aligns with the general consensus among economists on tariffs.

According to William Reinsch, Scholl Chair in International Business at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, U.S. manufacturers who rely on foreign parts and components would suffer a double blow due to Trump's tariffs. Their inputs would become more expensive, and their exported products would also become more expensive due to retaliatory tariffs.

Trump has stated that he will not increase taxes for American citizens, but rather impose them on countries such as China, those in Asia, and the European Union, which he considers to be "egregious."

The tariffs, if implemented, would represent a clear departure from traditional U.S. trade policy and mainstream economic thought, according to Reinsch.

The Biden administration has heavily relied on a coordinated approach with like-minded partners like Japan and the Netherlands to enforce trade restrictions, particularly when it comes to dealing with China.

The Biden administration has mostly kept Trump's China tariffs and added more levies on specific high-tech sectors, according to Reinsch, who characterized the difference between the two leaders' approaches to trade restrictions as "Trump's sledgehammer versus Biden/Harris' scalpel."

The authenticity of Trump's tariff proposals has been a topic of discussion.

According to an interview with Biz Focus Hub18 on Tuesday, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase & Co, stated that some of Trump's top advisors informed him that the proposed tariff rates were used as a negotiation tactic for better trade deals, rather than an anticipated outcome.

by Dylan Butts

Markets