The top performers and underperformers in global commodities this year, along with their future prospects.

• In April, the S&P GSCI, which measures the overall performance of the commodity market, experienced a 12% increase from the beginning of the year. However, this growth slowed down to a 2.18% rise year-to-date.
• Soft commodities such as cocoa, eggs, orange juice, rubber, and coffee have experienced the most gains year-to-date, according to FactSet data.

Prices in the global commodities market have been mostly high and fluctuating this year.

While futures surged to record highs in the first half of the year, prices of base metals like iron ore fluctuated with headlines from the Middle East.

According to Sabrin Chowdhury, director and head of commodities analysis at BMI, commodity markets have been influenced by sentiment and have been prone to sudden fluctuations, constantly seeking the slightest indication of optimism to reach new heights, only to plummet with the first hint of potential disappointment.

In April, the S&P GSCI, which measures the overall performance of the commodity market, experienced a 12% increase from the beginning of the year. However, this growth slowed down to a 2.18% rise year-to-date.

The top-performing commodities this year, as per FactSet data, are a specific set of soft commodities, including cocoa, eggs, rubber, and others.

As a result of adverse weather in their main production regions, commodities experienced significant growth, according to analysts who spoke to CNBC.

Biggest winners

Cocoa

Prices for cocoa have increased by 66% this year, with futures reaching an unprecedented high of $11,722 per metric ton in April, as a result of a shortage caused by supply disruptions from heavy rains and disease in major producers Ivory Coast and Ghana.

According to Darren Stetzel, senior vice president of soft commodities for Asia at brokerage StoneX, the influx of hedge funds into the market amplified price volatility due to the allure of profit-making opportunities.

Despite a decline from record highs, cocoa futures continue to hover above average prices, with the September contract currently trading at $9,150 per metric ton on the U.S. Intercontinental Exchange.

Stetzel predicted that the cocoa market would stabilize in West Africa by 2025, although prices would take time to reach their pre-spike levels.

Eggs

The recent increase in avian influenza in poultry facilities worldwide has led to a 62% rise in egg prices since the beginning of the year, with the current spot price of a dozen large white eggs being $3.57, according to FactSet, citing the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Commodity Research Bureau.

The bird flu has impacted approximately 18.5 million egg-laying hens in the U.S. this year. Additionally, consumers have been increasingly relying on eggs as a cost-effective source of protein, according to Karyn Rispoli, managing editor at market intelligence platform Expana.

As the fall and holiday seasons approach, it is predicted that higher wholesale egg prices will occur, particularly if HPAI infections persist, according to Tim Luginsland, the sector manager of the Agri-Food Institute at Wells Fargo.

Orange juice

The price of orange juice futures on ICE has reached a record high of $4.49 per pound in May, and is currently hovering around that level. This is due to production declines in Florida, the main producer of orange juice in the U.S., as well as climate-fueled adverse weather in key orange producing areas of Brazil, which has pushed the industry into crisis mode.

The decline in orange juice production in Brazil, which accounts for 70% of global production, is likely to continue, resulting in a fifth consecutive season of decreased production.

According to David Branch, Wells Fargo's Agri-Food Institute sector manager, orange juice prices are expected to remain high due to the projected orange crop yields for the upcoming season.

Rubber

The prices of natural rubber have increased by almost 30% since the beginning of the year, resulting from decreased production in Thailand and Indonesia, which are the world's largest producers, due to weather-related problems such as low rainfall.

The current price of RSS3 rubber futures on the Osaka Stock Exchange is 337 yen ($2.29) per kg for the September contract.

Coffee

Due to adverse weather conditions in coffee growing regions in southeast Brazil, coffee futures traded on ICE have increased by 25% year-to-date to $2.45 per pound, according to BMI's Chowdhury.

Crop declines in key producing regions Vietnam and Indonesia have resulted from El Niño-induced production challenges in Southeast Asia. El Niño is a weather phenomenon characterized by warmer temperatures and extreme weather conditions, lasting approximately nine to 12 months.

Biggest losers

Iron ore

Iron ore prices dropped the most among commodities due to weak demand from China's property sector and low steel mill margins in the country, which are crucial drivers of iron ore prices, according to Vivek Dhar, director of mining and energy commodities research at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Iron ore is a vital component of steel.

The New York Mercantile Exchange's benchmark 62%-grade iron ore contract expiring Aug. 30 was last traded at $98.10 per ton.

Dhar stated in a recent note that the property sector accounts for approximately 30% of China's steel consumption, which remains a significant obstacle to the country's steel consumption.

Iron ore prices may not sustain below $US100/t in the near term due to steel mill margins discouraging production, causing markets to worry.

Grains

Grains such as wheat, corn, and soybeans, which are widely consumed, experienced significant declines in the Northern Hemisphere during a bumper crop year.

Due to consecutive large crops in leading grain production regions, the global grain industry currently has a significant surplus in inventory. This has resulted in an influx of corn and soybeans into the export market, causing prices to decrease.

The Chicago Board of Trade has seen almost 15% decline in wheat and corn trading, and soybeans have dropped close to 25% so far this year.

Notable mentions

Gold

This year, gold prices have surged to unprecedented heights due to several factors, including the anticipation of U.S. interest rate reductions and the asset's reputation as a secure investment. Recently, gold futures reached another record high of $2,549.9 per ounce.

BMI's Chowdhury predicts that the global commodities market will remain elevated, despite volatility in the year so far.

The weakening of the U.S. dollar is expected to support prices, especially as the U.S. Fed cuts rates later in the year. However, continued weak demand from China will cap price growth across most commodities, with industrial metals expected to lose out further, the analyst added.

According to Stetzel of StoneX, the global weather pattern is predicted to shift from El Niño to La Niña by the year's end, which could have a significant impact on the global agricultural market. La Niña is known to bring a cooling effect on global temperatures and happens every three to five years.

He stated that the weather conditions we experienced in the previous year will be the opposite of what we anticipate in 2025.