The stock market in China has risen by 25% due to the stimulus package, and there may be further gains.
- After the Golden Week break, analysts predicted that China's equity markets will continue to rise.
- According to Shehzad Qazi, chief operating officer at China Beige Book International, there is a possibility of a "reversal in sentiment" by 2025.
- Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X, stated the effectiveness of further stimulus measures.
After the Golden Week break, China's stock markets will continue to rise, according to analysts' predictions.
Beijing's economic support announcements last week led China's CSI 300 blue-chip index to surge over 25% in a nine-day winning streak. On Monday, it jumped over 8%, marking its best day in 16 years, before the markets were closed for a week-long holiday.
On Thursday, Hong Kong stocks ended a 6-day winning streak, causing concerns that China's stimulus rally may be losing momentum.
What is currently on investors' minds is the duration of the rally.
Eugene Hsiao, Head of China Equity Strategy at Macquarie Capital, stated that the decline in Hong Kong on Thursday was "short-term profit taking given the sharp rise" a day prior.
A longer rally is expected to be fueled by Beijing's recent stimulus and increased participation from retail investors, according to him.
China Beige Book International's chief operating officer, Shehzad Qazi, stated that the rally could continue until the end of the year.
If markets are disappointed with the stimulus measures, which in my view are not enough to address China's structural economic problems, there is a risk of an "ugly reversal in sentiment into 2025," Qazi said.
If the stimulus measures fail to deliver significant growth to the economy, investor enthusiasm will decrease, Qazi stated.
According to Shaun Rein, founder of China Market Research, there is still 1-3 weeks of room for Chinese equities to continue rising. However, it's not uncommon for prices to drop as investors close out positions to take profits. Since the rally was driven by sentiment, there will likely be more volatility ahead as no one wants to be the last in, but no one wants to be the last out.
Fear of missing out on a potential rally has motivated more individual investors to join trading, according to Ting Lu, Nomura's chief China economist, in a report on Thursday.
Fiscal stimulus in focus
Despite reports of plans to release major policies to support growth, the Ministry of Finance has yet to unleash any fiscal policies or support measures to shore up the economy.
Lu from Nomura's report stated that the final size and content of the fiscal package may be unpredictable and subject to change, and advised investors to exercise caution in their assessments during the current market turmoil.
If the central government's fiscal stimulus package fails to meet expectations, the rally in equity could be disrupted, according to Macquarie Capital's Hsiao. Other factors that could halt the rally include stronger-than-expected U.S. job numbers, which may imply smaller Fed rate cuts, or a Trump victory in November, he added.
Despite a prolonged real estate downturn and weakening domestic consumer confidence, China has faced deflationary pressures. Recent economic data has missed expectations, causing economists to worry that the world's second largest economy may not achieve its 5% full year growth target.
The People's Bank of China reduced the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by half a percentage point and cut the benchmark interest rate on seven-day reverse repurchase agreements by 20 basis points to 1.5% last week.
According to Billy Leung, investment strategist at Global X, if policy follow-through is strong, we could see further gains, backed by a broader base of investor participation.
Alexander Cousley, an APAC investment strategist at Russell Investments, highlighted on CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" that certain policies have been insufficient, and the focus has not shifted entirely to fiscal policies. He emphasized that the concern is that Chinese authorities still respond to improving data, but there is no follow-through.
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