The price of U.S. crude oil falls below $77 per barrel following a rise due to the Libya production stop.
- The market anticipates a gradual, rather than a sudden, disruption to oil supply from Libya.
- Goldman expects the production halt in Libya to be short lived.
- The surge in U.S. crude oil is due to its perception as the optimal substitute for the lost Libyan supply.
On Tuesday, U.S. crude oil futures decreased to $77 per barrel, despite rising in the previous session due to OPEC member Libya stopping production and exports.
Libya exports the majority of its crude oil to the global market, with European nations being the main buyers. As a result, U.S. oil surged due to its suitability as a substitute for importers seeking to replace lost Libyan supply.
As the market anticipates a gradual disruption rather than an abrupt halt of Libya's entire production, the U.S. benchmark is slightly retreating, according to Sara Vakhshouri, founder of SVB Energy International, who spoke on CNBC's "Capital Connection" on Tuesday.
Here are Tuesday's energy prices:
- The October contract price for crude oil is $76.99 per barrel, which represents a 43 cent decrease or 0.56% drop. Despite this, U.S. crude oil has experienced a 7.4% increase in value year to date.
- The October contract price per barrel is $80.96, a decrease of 47 cents or 0.58%, while the global benchmark is leading 5.1% year to date.
- The price of gasoline in September remained relatively stable at $2.28 per gallon. To date, gasoline prices have increased by 8.5% compared to the previous year.
- The September contract price for barrels of gas is $1.93, a decrease of over 2 cents or 1.38%. To date in the year, gas prices have fallen by 23.2%.
In September and October, the market will experience a decrease of 600,000 and 200,000 barrels per day, respectively, due to the disruptions in Libya, according to Goldman Sachs' assessment.
The central bank in Libya is at the center of a dispute between the governments in Tripoli and Benghazi, resulting in a production halt announced by the Benghazi government on Monday.
Goldman reduced its Brent price forecast by $5 to a range of $70 to $85 per barrel and now anticipates an average of $77 in 2025, down from $82 earlier.
The demand for oil in China has decreased as the country shifts from gasoline-powered cars to electric vehicles, according to Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman. Additionally, the supply of oil from the U.S. is exceeding expectations due to efficiency gains, Struyven stated in a Monday note to clients.
Markets
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