The price of crude oil in the United States has increased by almost 9% this week due to concerns about potential disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply.
- If an Israeli strike reduces Iranian oil production by 1 million barrels per day for an extended period, oil prices could increase by $10 to $20 per barrel, predicts Goldman Sachs.
The price of U.S. crude oil is expected to increase by almost 9% this week, following President Biden's statement that the White House is considering a potential Israeli strike on Iran's oil facilities in response to Tehran's recent ballistic missile attack.
If an Israeli strike reduces Iranian oil production by 1 million barrels per day for an extended period, oil prices could increase by $10 to $20 per barrel, according to Daan Struyven, head oil analyst at Goldman Sachs.
The extent to which oil prices will rise depends on whether OPEC employs its excess oil production to fill the void, according to Struyven.
Here are today's energy prices:
- The November contract price for crude oil is $74.07 per barrel, which represents a 37-cent increase or 0.50% gain. To date, the US has seen more than a 3% increase in crude oil.
- The December contract price for oil is $78.11 per barrel, which represents a 49 cent increase, or 0.63%, compared to the year-to-date global benchmark, which has risen more than 1%.
- The price of gasoline in November was $2.0992 per gallon, which represents a 0.0067% increase. To date, gasoline prices have decreased by less than 1% throughout the year.
- The November contract price for gas is $2.924 per thousand cubic feet, which represents a 1.55% decrease compared to the previous month. To date, gas has been performing better than expected, with a 18% increase in supply year-to-date.
Despite the recent surge in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, they have increased from a low starting point. In fact, just last month, prices reached their lowest level in nearly three years due to bearish sentiment and soft demand in China, as well as plans by OPEC+ to increase production.
The escalating war in the Middle East has significantly increased the risk to the oil price outlook, according to Struyven, who spoke on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" Friday.
According to Struyven, the geopolitical risk premium priced into oil markets was moderate until today. Brent prices at around $77 per barrel are still below Goldman Sachs' view of what constitutes fair value based on inventory levels.
Despite high geopolitical tensions, there have been no sustained supply disruptions over the past two years, resulting in a modest risk premium, according to Struyven. Additionally, Goldman Sachs analysts estimate that there is about 6 million barrels per day of spare capacity on the sidelines that can be activated to offset tightness from most supply disruption scenarios.
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