The Lowy Institute's Yaacob claims that China is using "gray zone tactics" at the contested Second Thomas Shoal.

• According to Rahman Yaacob of the Lowy Institute, Beijing is using "gray zone tactics" against the Philippines in the South China Sea after a recent dispute at a contested shoal.
• If China continues its aggression, it may take the use of kinetic weapons to trigger a U.S.-Philippines defense pact and create a wider conflict, according to him.

The Philippines is facing "gray zone tactics" from China at the contested Second Thomas Shoal reef, a move that may be aimed at avoiding U.S. intervention, according to Rahman Yaacob of the Lowy Institute.

Officials from the Philippines stated that Chinese troops harmed their boats and wounded sailors near the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, a region disputed by both Beijing and Manila, last week.

On Monday, Yaacob, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute's Southeast Asia Program, stated on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" that China has been testing its limits at the Shoal but has avoided triggering a broader conflict, despite the recent escalation.

The Chinese are skilled at conducting operations just short of conventional warfare and employing gray zone tactics against their opponents, according to him. He stated that the incident was unlikely to lead to the activation of the existing defense pact between the U.S. and the Philippines.

According to Rand Corporation, gray zone tactics involve "coercive actions that fall between armed conflict and normal diplomatic, economic, and other activities."

In 2020, a border clash occurred between Chinese and Indian soldiers in a disputed region of the Himalayas. Although 20 Indian soldiers were killed, no weapons were fired, and it did not lead to a direct military conflict, Yaacob emphasized.

Despite condemning Chinese ships' "illegal and aggressive actions" of disrupting its resupply missions to the Shoal, Philippine officials have not invoked the mutual defense treaty with the U.S. yet.

If the Chinese use kinetic force against the Philippine military forces, this may trigger the defense treaty, Yaacob warned.

Beijing has denied any wrongdoing in the latest Second Thomas Shoal clash, with a spokesperson stating on Thursday that the country had taken "necessary" measures to "protect its sovereignty."

Philippine officials stated that the country will persist in opposing China's "irresponsible actions" in the South China Sea. On Friday, officials announced that they had confronted four Chinese military ships in the Philippine waters of the Balabac Strait.

According to Yaacob, China is eager to steer clear of a conventional war with the U.S. at present, as it recognizes the disastrous outcomes that would result from such a conflict. Meanwhile, the U.S. is grappling with conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

On Sunday, Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr., the President of the Philippines, stated that the country does not engage in starting wars and would not employ force and intimidation.

The Chinese may become more aggressive and attempt to seize Filipino boats, potentially causing harm to Filipino Navy personnel, despite Yaacob's statement that de-escalation between the Philippines, China, and the U.S. is currently in the best interest of all parties.

He emphasized the need for the U.S. and Philippines to carefully consider this.