The likelihood of an ECB June rate cut is increasing, according to the German central bank chief, but there are still some conditions that need to be met.

The likelihood of an ECB June rate cut is increasing, according to the German central bank chief, but there are still some conditions that need to be met.
The likelihood of an ECB June rate cut is increasing, according to the German central bank chief, but there are still some conditions that need to be met.
  • The chief of Germany's Bundesbank stated during the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C. that the likelihood of a rate cut in June is increasing, but there are still some uncertainties.
  • According to Joachim Nagel, the ECB must be convinced that inflation has returned to its target before interest rate cuts can begin.

Joachim Nagel, a European Central Bank policymaker, stated on Wednesday that a rate cut for the organization is becoming more probable for June, but emphasized that some of the incoming inflation data remains higher than desired.

The chief of Germany's Bundesbank stated during the IMF Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C. that the likelihood of a rate cut in June is increasing, but there are still some uncertainties.

Nagel stated that core inflation and service inflation remain high. We will receive our projections for the June meeting, which will provide us with our news forecasts. If there is confirmation that inflation is decreasing and we will meet our target in 2025, the likelihood of a rate cut during the June meeting is increasing, as previously mentioned.

ECB June rate cut looks increasingly likely — but there are 'still some caveats,' German central bank chief says

He stated that while there is still some wage momentum in Germany, it is generally on a downward trajectory. Regarding energy prices, he noted that the recent increase in oil prices, compared to the previous year, is an uncertainty in an otherwise volatile environment.

He stated that he believes they learned a valuable lesson in 2022, as they were exposed to the crisis in Europe, which was particularly challenging for the industrial sector in his homeland.

"Although we may have been less resilient two years ago, we are now more resilient. However, if oil and energy prices rise, this will not only affect Germany but all of us."

In recent days, ECB officials have expressed their views on the anticipated interest rates.

Watch CNBC's full interview with ECB policymaker Mario Centeno

On Wednesday, Mario Centeno, the governor of Portugal's central bank, stated that it was time to alter the monetary policy cycle. Centeno cited slowing inflation as a reason, but also emphasized that the ECB's main decision-making body operates based on data.

The ECB's June interest rate decision would be of great significance, he stated.

"He assured CNBC's Karen Tso that the response we deliver will align with our forecasted recovery of the euro area economy, as market expectations for June are "very clear.""

The ECB is expected to make its first rate cut in June, and markets are pricing it in at the top.

The ECB kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time on Thursday. Additionally, the central bank updated its language regarding potential rate cuts, stating that a reduction would be suitable if the bank believed inflation was consistently falling towards its 2% objective.

Euro zone inflation slowed by more than expected to 2.4% in March.

Christine Lagarde: ECB will cut rates soon, barring any major surprise

Christine Lagarde, ECB President, stated that if there were no significant disruptions, the ECB would likely reduce interest rates in the near future. According to her, the disinflation process was progressing as anticipated, as she shared with CNBC's Sara Eisen.

If we can build more confidence in the disinflationary process and avoid a major shock, we will need to moderate our restrictive monetary policy, she stated.

On Wednesday, Austrian central bank Governor Robert Holzmann stated that the ECB is considering both economic growth and inflation when making decisions about monetary policy and interest rates.

Energy prices could be negatively affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, making interest rate cuts the biggest risk, according to Holzmann.

He stated that he was not fully committed to a June rate cut, citing the bank's need to wait for the results of spring wage negotiations and oil market developments before making a decision.

ECB’s Holzmann says biggest threat to strategy is the geopolitical situation in the Middle East
by Matt Clinch

Markets