The labor market may be presented in a mixed manner by Friday's jobs report. Here's what to anticipate.

• The BLS is predicted to report a lower increase in nonfarm payrolls of 155,000 on Friday, compared to the surprising 227,000 increase in November, as predicted by economists.
• Some on Wall Street anticipate that the number may fall short of the consensus.
• The unemployment rate is projected to increase to 4.3% and payroll growth is estimated to be only 125,000, according to Goldman Sachs.

The December jobs report may not offer much insight into the future of the labor market, as experts disagree on the severity of a slowdown in hiring.

According to the consensus of economists, it is predicted that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report a nonfarm payroll gain of 155,000 on Friday morning, which is slightly lower than the November increase of 227,000 but in line with the four-month average. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.2%.

Some on Wall Street anticipate that the number may be slightly lower than expected, considering the impact of seasonal trends and other variables.

Maureen Hoersten, the chief operating officer and interim CEO of LaSalle Network, a Chicago-based staffing firm, stated that the labor market is still good overall, despite some softening. She believes that this trend will continue, but people are still cautious and trying to understand the new economic, political, and social climate.

In 2024, the economy added approximately 180,000 jobs per month through November, although the data has been unclear and confusing due to measurement challenges, such as a rise in new workers and low response rates on surveys. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman expressed her frustration on Thursday, stating that labor market reports have become increasingly difficult to interpret due to these challenges.

The hiring of holiday workers may affect the accuracy of the December report's evaluation.

The unemployment rate is projected to increase to 4.3% and payroll growth is estimated to be only 125,000, according to Goldman Sachs.

"The Wall Street bank predicts a rise in labor force participation rate and moderate household employment growth, despite more difficult job-finding opportunities. However, the bank anticipates a slowdown in job growth in non-retail sectors, particularly professional services and construction, which will more than counterbalance the stronger retail hiring this month."

The labor market is not stabilizing and is becoming increasingly soft, according to economist Andrew Hollenhorst. Citigroup predicts that only 120,000 new jobs will be created and the unemployment rate will be 4.4%, which should remind markets of the risks involved.

According to Hoersten, she believes that when some of the current volatile factors subside, companies will continue to add headcount, although at a slower pace. The BLS report from earlier this week revealed that job openings in November reached a six-month high of over 8 million, while layoffs remained relatively stable, and the quits rate decreased.

According to minutes released Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials observed an "ongoing gradual easing in labor market" conditions at their December meeting, but did not detect "any signs of rapid deterioration."

A recent business survey by LaSalle Network revealed that 67% of small- and mid-size companies plan to increase their workforce in 2025, a decrease from 74% the previous year. The survey also indicated that salary increases are predicted to be smaller and hybrid working is likely to continue as a competitive strategy against larger companies for talent acquisition.

The annual rate of increase in average hourly earnings is predicted to be 4% in December, which is only slightly different from the 4% increase seen in November.

"Hoersten stated that he believes the market is still strong, despite the recent chaos. He predicts that things will remain stable, with no significant changes in either direction."