The jobs report for Friday is predicted to reveal the slowest rate of job growth in a long time.

• Despite strikes and storms, markets may still choose to look through the report and dampen hiring.
• The jobs report, which is closely watched, indicates that hiring has been steady and layoffs have been minimal based on indicators leading up to it.

In October, the nonfarm payrolls count is predicted to be the slowest in nearly four years due to powerful hurricanes and a major labor strike.

According to a survey by Dow Jones, economists predict that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will report a payroll expansion of only 100,000 on Friday. This is due to the impact of Hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the strike at Boeing. If this prediction is correct, it would represent the lowest job total since December 2020 and a significant decrease from September's 254,000.

The report, which will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show that the unemployment rate will remain at 4.1%.

Michael Arone, chief investment strategist at State Street Global Advisors, stated that the low unemployment rate and faster wage growth, both of which are indicated by the [headline jobs number], will contribute to the overall health of the U.S. economy.

Markets may disregard the report as too many one-time hits have dampened hiring.

Arone stated that the top line numbers may be slightly noisy, but they will still provide enough information to confirm that the soft landing is intact and the U.S. economy is in good shape.

The Boeing strike has sidelined 33,000 workers, while the hurricanes caused what could be historic levels of monetary damage.

Data has been solid

Despite the damage caused by storms and strikes, indicators suggest that hiring has continued and layoffs are low, as shown by the much-watched jobs report.

This week, ADP, a payrolls processing firm, reported that private companies hired 233,000 new workers in October, exceeding the forecast, while initial jobless claims fell to 216,000, matching the lowest level since late April.

Jared Bernstein, chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, stated on Wednesday that the disruptions will make it more difficult to accurately interpret this month's jobs report due to the White House's estimate that the events may reduce the payrolls count by as many as 100,000.

Jobs numbers in general have been noisy in post-Covid era.

The BLS made benchmark revisions earlier this year, which reduced the previous 12-month period through March 2024 by 818,000. Since then, revisions have taken a net 310,000 off the initial estimates year to date through July.

"Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, stated that while the labor market is still growing, the growth is slowing and becoming more concentrated in a few sectors."

Government, health care, and leisure and hospitality have been the leading areas of job creation this year, according to Pollak. However, ZipRecruiter has observed an increase in interest in skilled trades, finance, and insurance-related businesses.

"Job growth has been below the pre-pandemic average for the past two quarters, with job gains being narrowly distributed, according to Pollak. This has had a significant impact on job seekers and workers, who have felt their bargaining power diminish. As a result, many of them are struggling to find suitable employment. Therefore, Pollak believes that the Fed should focus its attention on the labor market."