The CNBC survey reveals that Biden's economic view is improving, bringing him even with Trump.
- In the CNBC All-America Economic survey, 46% of voters chose Trump while 45% selected Biden. Trump had a 48-42 lead in the December poll.
- In December, Biden's overall approval rating was 35%, but it increased to 39% in the latest poll. Additionally, his economic approval numbers improved from 33% to 37%.
- Several key economic issues show Trump leading among voters in terms of which candidate they believe is best.
- The survey was of 1,001 Americans across the country.
The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows that Americans' views on the economy have improved slightly, allowing President Biden to tie with Donald Trump in a head-to-head poll.
Inflation, taxes, and immigration are the most important economic issues for voters in this election, and former President Trump holds a commanding lead on these topics.
A survey of 1,001 Americans revealed that 46% of voters chose Trump and 45% picked Biden in a one-on-one match, with 10% undecided. In the December poll, Trump held a 48-42 lead. Both polls had a margin of error of +/-3.1%.
Biden gained more support among Democrats, independents, and college-educated individuals compared to the previous quarter, while Trump's advantage among those with less than a high school education increased. However, Trump's leads among whites, rural voters, and men remained, and he lost some support among those with some college education.
Biden's approval rating increased to 39% from 35% in December, and his disapproval decreased to 56% from 59%. Additionally, his economic approval numbers rose to 37% from 33%, while disapproval dropped to 58% from 62%.
Jay Campbell, a partner at Hart Research, who served as the Democratic pollster for the survey, stated that while 39% is objectively a bad approval number for a candidate going into reelection, it could still be enough this time.
Micah Roberts, a partner with Public Opinion Strategies, the Republican pollsters, largely agreed: "We're in new territory with two very unpopular candidates who people know very well. There's not much that you're going to learn new about either one of these guys. And so maybe it's enough. It's enough to keep it tight. That's for sure."
Poor views on foreign policy, immigration
Despite the President's approval on foreign policy remaining deeply negative, with only 30% approving compared to 63% who disapprove, his handling of immigration and border security is also viewed negatively, with 64% disapproving.
While over 90% of Republicans and 60% of independents disapprove of the president's handling of foreign policy and immigration, a significant portion of Democrats, specifically younger ones, also share this view.
Despite the ongoing issues affecting the president's approval, he has received a positive boost from improved views on the economy. The percentage of people who rate the economy as excellent or good has increased from 19% in December to 25%, while the percentage of people who say it's just fair or poor has decreased from 80% to 75%. These numbers represent the most optimistic views since the summer of 2021 and are accompanied by declining inflation, good growth data, and low unemployment. However, Americans are only half as positive on the economy as they were before the pandemic.
Americans' optimism on home prices, stock market, and job retention is at its highest in recent years, while expected wage gains are average and the percentage of respondents expecting a recession is the lowest since 2000.
Better off financially under Trump?
While 39% of Americans believe they will be better off financially if former President Trump is elected, compared to 23% who say Biden, 79% of Republicans strongly believe it matters for them financially if Trump is reelected. Only 18% of Republicans think it doesn't matter, while 51% of independents and 42% of Democrats believe it doesn't matter. However, 25% of independents believe they will be better off if Trump is elected, compared to 12% who pick Biden.
Trump appears to have a significant advantage among voters in terms of which candidate they believe is best on several key economic issues. According to survey respondents, inflation is the most pressing concern, and Trump has a 27-point lead on this issue. Biden, on the other hand, has a 19-point lead on healthcare. However, Trump has double-digit leads on several other issues, including the overall economy, crime, taxes, immigration, and China. Biden, meanwhile, has a large 25-point advantage on the abortion issue and a slim lead on Social Security.
Pollsters have identified some weaknesses in Biden's coalition, including a higher percentage of undecided black voters and a narrower 9-point advantage among Latinos compared to Trump. The AP Votecast poll showed that Biden won the Latino vote by 28 points in 2020.
Trump is preferred by Latinos for dealing with inflation by 12 points, while Biden is seen as better on healthcare by 24 points.
For the full results of the survey click here.
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