Strategist predicts that a recession is imminent in the U.S., and that 'a few rate cuts' will not be enough to prevent it.

Strategist predicts that a recession is imminent in the U.S., and that 'a few rate cuts' will not be enough to prevent it.
Strategist predicts that a recession is imminent in the U.S., and that 'a few rate cuts' will not be enough to prevent it.
  • According to BCA Research, contrary to popular belief, the economy is on the brink of a recession.
  • "According to Garry Evans, BCA Research's chief strategist of global asset allocation, certain things are breaking down at a rapid pace, as he stated on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia.""

While many believe that the economy is on the brink of a recession, BCA Research predicts that the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts will not be enough to prevent it.

"Garry Evans, BCA Research's chief strategist of global asset allocation, stated on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" that while everyone now believes there's a recession, the market holds the opposite view."

Evans highlighted indications of a slowing economy, citing the "deteriorating" U.S. labor market. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, its highest level since October 2021, and a measure of U.S. manufacturing activity reached an eight-month low in the same month.

The strategist stated that certain things are deteriorating at a rapid pace.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors anticipate at least three rate cuts by the end of the year, as indicated by the Fed funds futures market.

According to Evans, that will not significantly impact his projections.

"A recession cannot be prevented by a few rate cuts, as the average duration is 10 months. It takes about a year for the economy to see the benefits of fed cuts," he stated.

Unless there is a recession, the market predicts that the fed fund rate at the end of next year will be 3%, which is currently at 5.3%.

A recession usually happens when a country experiences two consecutive quarters of decrease in its real GDP.

The annual economic policy symposium in Jackson Hole this week is being closely monitored by traders, who are hoping for more clarity on the interest rate outlook, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak on Friday.

Despite inflation and high interest rates, the U.S. economy has remained strong.

Over the past 100 years, there have been over a dozen recessions, some lasting up to 1.5 years.

A survey by Affirm shows that nearly 60% of Americans believe the U.S. is in a recession, despite the country not officially being in one.

by Lee Ying Shan

Markets