Since the financial crisis, the stock market has not experienced a 2% sell-off in the longest period.

Since the financial crisis, the stock market has not experienced a 2% sell-off in the longest period.
Since the financial crisis, the stock market has not experienced a 2% sell-off in the longest period.
  • The S&P 500 has not experienced a 2.05% sell-off after 377 days.
  • Since the great financial crisis, the longest stretch for the benchmark has been recorded by FactSet data compiled by CNBC.
  • As investors invest heavily in large-cap technology companies like Nvidia, the market slump occurs while predictions are made that AI will increase earnings.

Wall Street's climb to record highs has come with conspicuously little volatility.

Since the great financial crisis, the benchmark has not had a 2.05% sell-off or a gain of at least 2.15% for 377 days.

The market slump occurs as investors invest heavily in large-cap technology companies like Nvidia, anticipating that artificial intelligence will increase profits. To date, the S&P 500 has risen over 14%. The expectation of Federal Reserve rate cuts has also boosted the broad market index in 2024, as new data indicates that inflation is moving closer to the central bank's 2% target.

"Over the past 12 months, the macroeconomic uncertainty clouds have cleared, thanks to the receding inflation, which has given clarity into the future direction of monetary policy, according to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial. The shift in narrative from rate hikes to rate cuts and recessions to economic resilience has helped bring the VIX down to multiyear lows, resulting in a transition from a high volatility to a low volatility regime for stocks."

The VIX is widely viewed as the benchmark fear gauge on Wall Street. In the previous month, it reached its lowest point since November 2020. On Friday, it traded close to 13, near record-low values.

"According to Joseph Cusick, senior vice president and portfolio specialist at Calamos Investments, the low VIX indicates the options market's complacency, with VIX at a three-year low. This is because institutions have been actively hedging, and there is no urgency to sell underlying with these insurance products in place."

It's unclear how long this low-volatility period will last.

In 2017, the S&P 500 had only eight daily moves of over 1%, and the VIX reached record-low levels below 9. In contrast, the VIX surged above 50 in 2018 before easing.

by Brian Evans

Markets