Retail sales exceeded expectations in July, resulting in a 1% increase in consumer spending.

Retail sales exceeded expectations in July, resulting in a 1% increase in consumer spending.
Retail sales exceeded expectations in July, resulting in a 1% increase in consumer spending.

Despite inflation pressures, consumer spending in July exceeded expectations, according to the Commerce Department's report on Thursday.

Retail sales accelerated by 1% in advanced markets, despite being adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had predicted a 0.3% increase. June sales were initially reported as flat but were later revised to show a decline of 0.2%.

Despite the 0.1% forecast, sales increased by 0.4%.

The labor market showed positive signs with a decrease in initial unemployment benefit claims for the week ending Aug. 10. The number of claims was 227,000, which is 7,000 less than the previous week and below the estimated 235,000.

The increase in sales was driven by gains at motor vehicles and parts dealers (3.6%), electronics and appliance stores (1.6%), and food and beverage outlets (0.9%). Miscellaneous retailers experienced a decline of 2.5%, while gas stations saw a slight increase in receipts (0.1%), and clothing stores also saw a decrease of 0.1%.

Following the Thursday morning data releases, both stock market futures and Treasury yields experienced a sharp increase.

Inflation eased slightly in July, and the report will be released the same week.

While the monthly prices paid by consumers for goods and services rose by 0.2%, the annual inflation rate decreased to 2.9%, its lowest since March 2021. In contrast, wholesale prices only increased by 0.1% on the month and 2.2% on the year.

Despite inflation remaining above the Fed's 2% target, the data shows a decrease in price pressures that peaked two years ago. Financial markets anticipate the Fed to make its first rate cut in over four years at its next meeting in September. However, a strong consumer could prompt policymakers to take a cautious approach to cuts.

Investors are increasingly anticipating that the Fed will shift its focus from inflation to a broader examination of potential weakening conditions in the labor market and other areas, in addition to seeking lower rates.

The Labor Department's unemployment benefit filings numbers revealed a slight decline in continuing claims, which are a week behind the initial filings, to 1.864 million. This came after a weaker than expected July payrolls report caused concern about the labor market's potential weakening.

Other economic data released Thursday showed that the manufacturing picture is wobbling.

The New York Fed's Empire State Manufacturing gauge improved slightly to -4.7, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index decreased to -7, its first negative reading since January and significantly below the predicted 7.9.

Both indexes measure the percentage of companies reporting expansion against contraction.

This is breaking news. Please check for updates.

by Jeff Cox

Markets