Red states may not fully support Trump and GOP's attacks on IRA.

• Although the clean energy sector, including EV and battery technology jobs, is growing, it still represents only a small portion of the U.S. workforce, which is approximately 160 million workers.
• Red and swing states are crucial for Republican politicians as they are experiencing growth.
• The Inflation Reduction Act faces tough talk from President-elect Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, who will need to consider the impact on jobs in states governed by Republicans, districts held by the GOP, and a growing portion of climate tech jobs with labor union support.

The new Republican-majority Congress has made its energy priorities clear, with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson stating from the House floor that they will stop attacks on liquefied natural gas, eliminate the Green New Deal, expedite new drilling permits, save jobs of auto manufacturers, and end ridiculous E.V. mandates.

According to data from the auto industry, there is a more complex story regarding investments in EVs and related battery technologies. Specifically, states governed by Republicans have seen more investments in these areas than states led by Democrats. The top 10 states for total investments in EV technology, as reported by the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, are either solidly red or swing states such as Michigan, Arizona, North Carolina, and Nevada. Despite this, Trump confidante Elon Musk has stated that repealing EV incentives would be a pill he could swallow, even as CEO of Tesla, because it would harm other automakers even more.

The Inflation Reduction Act, a 2022 law that allocates $369 billion over a decade for clean-energy and climate-related projects, has been a topic of discussion among President-elect Trump and many GOP members. Not a single Republican voted in favor of the bill, and the party and Trump have since criticized its subsidies, tax credits, grants, and loans as wasteful government overreach.

Trump vowed to revoke all unused funds under the Inflation Reduction Act during this year's campaign.

The IRA's $7,500 federal personal tax credit for buying a new electric vehicle and incentives for private companies investing in manufacturing solar panels, wind turbines, EV batteries, heat pumps, and other clean-energy products have also been discussed by him and fellow Republicans.

In an interview with CNBC last fall, Speaker Johnson suggested that the GOP may face challenges now that investments have increased and job growth continues to rise in Republican states. He stated that it would be impractical to "blow up" the IRA and that it would be unwise to do so since some elements of the "terrible" legislation had positively impacted the economy. Johnson advised using a scalpel instead of a sledgehammer because there are certain provisions in the legislation that have been beneficial overall.

The IRA-funded projects have provided significant economic benefits to the country, beyond just the EV industry, and these benefits are mainly in red states. These projects have resulted in thousands of clean-energy jobs, which are linked to the IRA, the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and the CHIPS and Science Act. A significant portion of this workforce voted for Republicans in November, and threatening their livelihoods could lead to a backlash in voting.

"According to Bob Keefe, executive director of E2, the IRA is a crucial policy that can generate jobs, stimulate economic growth, and enhance our economy, all while providing us with the means to decrease greenhouse gas emissions."

The clean energy jobs market has grown significantly in recent years, with more than 149,000 jobs created in 2023, accounting for 6.4% of new jobs economy-wide and nearly 60% of total employment across the entire energy sector. Over the past three years, clean-energy jobs increased by 14%, reaching nearly 3.5 million workers nationwide. However, there are concerns about the potential of repealing the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has been a driving force behind the growth of the clean energy jobs market.

Since the IRA's passing, E2 has monitored private-sector clean-energy initiatives, including solar, wind, grid electrification, clean vehicles, and EV and storage batteries. As of now, it has identified 358 significant projects in 42 states and investments of approximately $132 billion. Over 60% of the declared projects, representing nearly 80% of the investment and 70% of the jobs, are situated in Republican congressional districts.

A study by the Net Zero Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University examined the effects of modifying Biden's climate bills, specifically the IRA, on both domestic and global economies. The study found that if the IRA were repealed in the United States, it would most likely harm U.S. manufacturing and trade, creating up to $80 billion in investment opportunities for other countries, including major U.S. competitors like China. The study also stated that the harm to the United States would come in the form of lost factories, lost jobs, lost tax revenue, and up to $50 billion in lost exports.

GOP lawmakers who represent states and counties that benefit from the IRA's tax credits have not overlooked the potential consequences of eliminating them. In August, 18 House Republicans wrote to Speaker Mike Johnson, urging him to preserve the tax credits that have "created good jobs in many parts of the country, including many districts represented by members of our conference."

One of the signees of the Infrastructure Investment and Revitalization Act (IRA), Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon, is Trump's nominee for Secretary of Labor. Another signee, Rep. Buddy Carter of Georgia, has touted the eight clean-energy projects, totaling $7.8 billion in investments and creating 7,222 jobs, that the IRA has brought to his district. Additionally, the tiny town of Dalton, Georgia, home of the largest solar panel manufacturing plant in the western hemisphere and source of about 2,000 jobs, is in the district represented by Marjorie Taylor Greene, a vociferous climate-change skeptic who has nonetheless cheered the factory.

Over 50% of the nearly 930 business stakeholders surveyed in August by E2 and BW Research said they would lose business or revenue if the IRA was repealed, while 21% would have to lay off workers.

If Republicans repeal the IRA, which would need congressional approval, they will harm their own constituents by canceling projects and causing job losses, according to Andrew Reagan, executive director of Clean Energy for America.

West Virginia Republican Senator Shelley Moore Capito, who will chair the Environment and Public Works Committee this year, discussed in a recent interview with Politico her focus on rolling back certain aspects of the IRA while preserving those that have created clean-energy jobs. In her state, some individuals have utilized this tax relief to create employment opportunities for 800 and 1,000 people, according to Capito. She emphasized that this should be the primary objective of the IRA.

Union organizing at EV and battery plants

The IRA, Infrastructure Act, and CHIPS Act all have provisions that ensure a significant portion of jobs created go to union members or provide prevailing wages and benefits, apprenticeships, and job training to non-union workers. As a result, unions are actively fighting to protect these bills.

The Department of Energy reports that unionization rates in clean energy have surpassed traditional energy employment for the first time, reaching 12.4%. According to Samantha Smith, strategic advisor for clean energy jobs for the AFL-CIO, which represents more than 12.5 million U.S. workers in manufacturing, construction, mining and other sectors, this is a significant milestone. Smith stated that the AFL-CIO will work to ensure that every job and clean-energy project with federal funding is a good union job. The union's focus is on legislation and what Congress might do to support this goal.

The Laborers' International Union of North America represents approximately 530,000 workers in the energy and construction industries. Executive director Brent Booker stated that LIUNA members voted for both Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, but none voted to take their jobs away. While "cautiously optimistic that the IRA will remain in place," the union "will hold this administration accountable to ensure it does."

The Center for Automotive Research has released a report detailing the workforce requirements to meet the growing demand for EV batteries in the US by 2030. The report highlights the significant skills gaps in the battery industry, which will necessitate the recruitment and training of engineers, technicians, and assemblers for several years.

The UAW has pledged $40 million in support for non-union autoworkers and battery workers organizing in the South, particularly in the "battery belt" region.

"The UAW announced that the electric vehicle battery industry is expected to create tens of thousands of jobs in the coming years. These jobs will mainly replace existing powertrain jobs in the automotive industry. The union plans to launch a large-scale organizing campaign to protect and improve the standards in the burgeoning battery sector."

This week, workers at Ford's $6-billion BlueOval SK EV battery plant in Glendale, Kentucky, filed for a union election with the National Labor Relations Board.

Reagan stated that he believes Trump will remain true to his America First platform, which involves bolstering U.S. manufacturing and supply chains, slashing energy bills for consumers by increasing domestic energy production, and reducing dependence on foreign trade, particularly with China. Reagan emphasized that Trump cannot achieve these goals if he eliminates tax incentives or hinders American companies that are generating jobs. Reagan cautioned that an antagonistic approach towards a significant portion of the economy would not lead to success.