Recession concerns cause treasury yields to plummet.

Recession concerns cause treasury yields to plummet.
Recession concerns cause treasury yields to plummet.

Last week's release of key economic data caused fears about a recession to increase, resulting in a slide in U.S. Treasuries on Monday.

The yield on the fell by over eight basis points to 3.7099% at 2:41 a.m. ET, dropping from its previous high of 3.7315% after a decline of around 14 basis points.

Prices and yields move in opposite directions, with one basis point equal to 0.01%.

The nonfarm payrolls report for July revealed that job growth for the month was only 114,000, which was lower than the estimated 185,000 by Dow Jones and also below June's revised figure of 179,000. Additionally, the employment rate unexpectedly increased to 4.3%, its highest level since October 2021.

The suggestion of a loosening of the job market led to worries about a recession. This occurred after the Fed did not increase interest rates and indicated a possible reduction in September. However, some investors have since questioned whether the central bank should have acted sooner to prevent an economic slowdown.

The Fed's rate cut in September is becoming more likely, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, with markets now pricing in a 50 basis point reduction.

In the upcoming week, investors will closely monitor the comments of Fed officials for indications of the economic and monetary policy outlook. Additionally, the ISM's Services PMI, which measures the performance of services companies, is scheduled to be released on Monday and is predicted to increase from June's 48.8 reading to 50.9 in July.

by Sophie Kiderlin

Markets