OPEC maintains demand and steady economic growth forecasts, resulting in little change in oil prices.

OPEC maintains demand and steady economic growth forecasts, resulting in little change in oil prices.
OPEC maintains demand and steady economic growth forecasts, resulting in little change in oil prices.
  • The cartel has maintained its optimistic oil demand projections for the next two years, anticipating continued global economic expansion.
  • On Monday, crude oil experienced a more than 2% increase in price, allowing it to regain much of the ground lost in the previous week.
  • Last week, the futures market experienced a decline following the OPEC+ announcement to boost production output in the near future.
Oil market selloff was 'overdone,' says strategist

OPEC remained committed to its economic growth forecasts, and as a result, crude oil futures saw minimal fluctuations on Tuesday.

On Monday, oil prices surged more than 2%, recouping most of the losses incurred last week. This happened after OPEC+ announced plans to increase crude production in October, causing the market to sell off to four-month lows.

Here are today's energy prices:

  • The July contract amounted to $77.63, representing a 11-cent or 0.14% decrease. To date in the year, the U.S. oil market has experienced an 8.4% increase.
  • The August contract price is $81.54 a barrel, which is a 9 cent decrease or 0.11% less than the year-to-date global benchmark, which is currently ahead by 5.9%.
  • The price of gasoline in July according to RBOB Gasoline contract is $2.39 per gallon, which represents a 0.57% decrease. However, year to date, gasoline has experienced a 14% increase.
  • The July contract price for gas is $3.07 per thousand cubic feet, representing a 5.78% increase. To date, gas has risen 22% in the year.

According to OPEC's monthly report, the group is forecasting oil demand growth of 2.2 million barrels per day in 2024 and 1.8 million bpd in 2025. Additionally, the oil producers anticipate global economic growth of 2.8% this year and 2.9% in 2025.

The services sector is expected to continue driving economic growth in the second half of the year, with travel and tourism playing a significant role, resulting in a positive impact on oil demand, according to OPEC.

After the OPEC+ production decision, many investors abandoned their long positions in oil, but traders seemed to be "buying the dip," according to John Evans, an analyst with oil broker PVM.

"Oil prices have experienced a bearish confluence of events, resulting in a significant decline and oversold conditions. As a result, there is a high likelihood of a rally back to current levels," Evans stated in a note.

JPMorgan reports that money managers reduced their net long position in Brent by 69% in one week, reaching its lowest level since 2014 following the OPEC+ decision.

Although Goldman Sachs predicted a bearish outlook last week, they forecast that the market will experience a deficit in summer fuel demand, causing Brent to rise to $86 per barrel in the third quarter.

On Wednesday, traders are anticipating the end of the Federal Reserve meeting and the release of U.S. inflation data, while the International Energy Agency will also publish its monthly oil market report.

by Spencer Kimball

Markets