Macron faces his toughest challenge yet as France goes to the polls.

• The week before the first round of the presidential election, the gap between incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and far-right party leader Marine Le Pen was narrower, according to opinion polls.
• Support for Macron had surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• Higher energy prices and inflation have been exacerbated by the war, which has been used by Marine Le Pen in her campaign.

On Sunday, French voters will cast their ballots in an election where the cost of living and the war in Ukraine were the main topics of discussion.

The second and final round of the presidential election on April 24 will see incumbent President Emmanuel Macron and far-right party leader Marine Le Pen, who is running for the third time, disputing a narrower gap between them, as shown in opinion polls from the week before the first round.

The French president has gained support after attempting to resolve the conflict between Ukraine and Russia through diplomatic means and pushing the EU to take action against Moscow.

In response to the atrocities in towns near Kyiv, Macron called for the EU to ban Russian coal and oil. The bloc subsequently implemented measures against Russian coal and began working on restricting Russian oil.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has led to an increase in energy prices and inflation, which has been exploited by Marine Le Pen in her political campaign.

Le Pen has been intensely focused on the cost of living as she tries to differentiate herself from her ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Her campaign team has refuted rumors that they were instructed to destroy thousands of flyers featuring a picture of Le Pen with Putin.

According to Berenberg analysts, Macron is still leading in the polls for the upcoming election on 24 April. However, his initial surge in popularity after Russia invaded Ukraine has decreased as Le Pen has capitalized on concerns about rising living costs. Based on current trends, Macron and Le Pen are likely to be very close in the election results.

Le Pen has shifted her political stance to attract more moderate voters, including abandoning her previous stance on France's departure from the European Union.

Eric Zemmour, a new presidential candidate, has contributed to softening her image by being even more right wing and taking a tough stance on immigration.

A more radical candidate on the far-right side of the spectrum, Zemmour's bid, may be assisting Le Pen's efforts to normalize her image and make her more palatable as a candidate for certain segments of the center-right electorate, according to Antonio Barroso, managing director at consultancy Teneo, in a note on Tuesday.

He remarked that Le Pen's campaign in 2021 is more professional than her previous one in 2017, with a consistent effort to present a less aggressive image.

Since the beginning of the year, the yield on government bonds has increased due to growing economic concerns and higher inflation. Additionally, the benchmark rose last week as polls indicated that the gap between Macron and Le Pen was narrowing.