It is unlikely that EU tariffs will hinder Chinese EV manufacturers' growth in Europe.

It is unlikely that EU tariffs will hinder Chinese EV manufacturers' growth in Europe.
It is unlikely that EU tariffs will hinder Chinese EV manufacturers' growth in Europe.
  • Despite additional tariffs, Chinese EVs will remain competitive in Europe due to their still relatively low prices, analysts predict.
  • According to research by the Rhodium group, tariffs of up to 50% may be necessary to significantly discourage Chinese EV exports.
  • The EU's tariffs are less severe than North America's because European and Chinese original equipment manufacturers have extensive connections.

Despite the EU's revised tariffs on Chinese-made autos, Chinese electric vehicles will remain competitive in Europe.

The latest tariff revisions in August saw BYD's tariffs cut from 17.4% to 17%, Geely's tariffs reduced from 19.9% to 19.3%, and saw a decrease in tariffs from 37.6% to 36.3%.

According to research group Rhodium, tariffs of at least 50% are necessary to make the European market unattractive for Chinese EV exporters. However, the group suggests that vertically integrated manufacturers like BYD may require even higher tariffs.

According to Joseph McCabe, president and CEO of AutoForecast Solutions, the current tariffs on Chinese-made EVs will present a challenge, but not an insurmountable obstacle for China's EV-makers.

Spillover risk of excess EV batteries out of China is 'reducing,' Goldman Sachs says

The EU's tariffs on Chinese goods are not as severe as those announced by North America because European and Chinese original equipment manufacturers have strong connections. In May, the U.S. imposed a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles, and Canada followed suit in June.

McCabe stated that promoting domestic European production while minimizing the impact on Chinese operations requires a fine balance.

Even as the EU tries to limit imports through tariffs, Chinese EV manufacturers are introducing more affordable options.

An employee does final inspections on a Mercedes-Benz C-Class at the Mercedes-Benz US International factory in Vance, Alabama.

In May of this year, the Chinese company unveiled its Dolphin model to the European market for under $21,550. This model is a rebranded version of the Chinese Seagull model.

The cheapest Tesla model, Model 3, is being sold for $44,480 in the UK. Additionally, electric vehicles made by Tesla in China are subject to a 9% tariff on imports to the EU.

Despite the 17% levy, the BYD Dolphin model will remain $23,270 cheaper than the imported Tesla Model 3 from China.

To remain competitive against Chinese rivals, Volkswagen plans to launch a low-cost electric vehicle in Europe by 2027, priced at approximately $21,476.

McCabe stated that now, market share is given priority over profitability. The investment community values new, innovative EV companies based on their potential future success rather than their immediate financial performance, which is how legacy manufacturers are evaluated.

William Ma, CIO of GROW Investment Group, stated on CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Tuesday that if they truly intend to eliminate the EV industry in China, they must impose 300% tariffs, which, in his opinion, is illogical.

McCabe warned that the risk of retaliatory tariff measures from China against Europe is high if the Chinese original equipment manufacturing sector is affected.

The EU initiated tariff negotiations in June due to perceived "unfair subsidies" for Chinese EV manufacturers, which posed a "risk of economic harm" to European EV manufacturers.

Ma stated that the geopolitical or sanction issue will not be resolved quickly and will persist for the next year or two.

by Sonia Heng

Markets