Industries from agriculture to health care could face workforce threats due to Trump's mass deportation plan.

• The post-pandemic labor market, bolstered by immigration, faces a threat from President-elect Donald Trump's plan to deport undocumented immigrants en masse.
• Those seeking employment in sectors such as construction, agriculture, technology, and health care have been increasingly hiring foreign-born workers, as the domestic labor supply has been a challenge in these fields.
• The Brookings Institution's recent study suggests that the new Trump administration's immigration policy could decrease GDP growth by 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points, or $30 billion to $110 billion.

The post-pandemic labor market, bolstered by immigration, faces a threat from President-elect Donald Trump's plan to deport undocumented immigrants en masse.

Last year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that immigrant workers accounted for 18.6% of the workforce, which is a new record. These foreign-born workers have been filling open positions in various sectors, including construction, agriculture, technology, and health care, where companies have been struggling to find domestic labor.

The extent of the economic impact of Trump's deportation plan is uncertain, but companies and economists are actively working to determine its potential consequences.

According to Jennie Murray, CEO of the National Immigration Forum, American companies will face increased labor costs and may lose the competition for skilled workers.

The Trump campaign has stated that they will conduct the largest deportation operation in U.S. history while simultaneously lowering costs for families and strengthening the workforce.

"President Trump was re-elected by a significant margin, allowing him to fulfill his campaign promises, including deporting criminal migrants and revitalizing the economy, according to Leavitt. "He will deliver.""

A Brookings Institution study examined the potential effects on the labor market and U.S. gross domestic product in 2025 under high- and low-immigration scenarios, and economists are less convinced Trump can implement his immigration plans without negatively impacting the workforce.

The estimated reduction in GDP growth due to Trump's immigration policy ranges from 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points, or $30 billion to $110 billion.

"The economy under the 'low' scenario will remain smaller than the other scenarios beyond 2025, according to the authors. However, the consequences of a more extreme mass deportation policy are not modeled and could be economically disruptive in unpredictable ways."

According to Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow at the Hamilton Project and one of the authors, in industries where there will be a decrease in labor supply, it will become more expensive for companies to offer goods and services, resulting in higher inflation. However, there are other factors that could alleviate inflation.

"Edelberg stated that when discussing inflation, we must consider the impact of decreased demand for goods and services due to the absence of immigrants. Additionally, recent immigrants who remain may reduce their spending as they try to determine their future."

California and the immigrant workforce

In California, from 2021 to 2023, one-third of workers were immigrants, as stated by the California Budget & Policy Center. Some sectors, including agriculture, are closely monitoring immigration policy developments because the industry heavily relies on H-2A workers with temporary visas to fill production roles.

Some industry associations are advocating for immigration reform during the formation of the new government.

"Shannon Douglass, president of the California Farm Bureau, stated that the organization looks forward to collaborating with the new administration and Congressional representatives to implement agricultural workforce reform in the upcoming year. The group emphasized the importance of resolving employee shortages on California farms and ranches and removing obstacles to employment for the sake of both farmers and the state's agriculture industry."

Douglass stated that only through serious bipartisan cooperation that benefits both workers and producers can we overcome these challenges.

Immigration reform is the solution, specifically changes to the H-2A agricultural visa program that enables foreign workers to temporarily enter the US for farm jobs and grant legal status to our current workforce, she stated.

The National Immigration Forum's Murray warns about the potential ripple effects of deportation, including the closure of farms and increased reliance on imported food due to a shrinking workforce.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has called a special legislative session to protect California from potential federal interference.

The governor's office announced on Dec. 2 that Newsom is collaborating with lawmakers to establish a new litigation fund of up to $25 million to safeguard California's legal resources against "harmful policy proposals." The expected areas of focus for this fund include reproductive rights, immigration, and the environment.

On Wednesday, Attorney General Rob Bonta issued new instructions for public institutions on how to adhere to California's law restricting state and local involvement in immigration enforcement actions.

"Regardless of who is in the White House, California will remain committed to upholding its values, Bonta stated in a release. As the most diverse state in the country, immigrants are a vital part of our economy, history, and culture. We will not be taken by surprise if the President-elect carries out his promises to deport large numbers of people."