In three years, consumer confidence has decreased the most in September.

In three years, consumer confidence has decreased the most in September.
In three years, consumer confidence has decreased the most in September.
  • The Consumer Confidence Index of the Conference Board decreased by 6.9 points in September compared to August, marking the largest monthly decline since August 2021.
  • Respondents' concerns focused mostly on jobs and inflation.
September consumer confidence falls the most in three years

In September, the Conference Board reported that consumers' view of the economy plummeted, marking the largest decline in over three years, as concerns about jobs and business conditions intensified.

The Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 6.9 points to 98.7 in September, marking the largest one-month decline since August 2021. The Dow Jones consensus forecast predicted a reading of 104.

The month saw the worst performance of all five components sampled by the organization, with the largest decline occurring among those aged 35-54 and earning less than $50,000.

The Conference Board's chief economist, Dana Peterson, stated that consumers' evaluations of current business conditions became negative while their views of the current labor market situation became softer. Additionally, consumers were more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less optimistic about future business conditions and income.

The highest inflation rate in more than 40 years was preceded by a significant drop in the confidence index.

Following the relief, stocks experienced losses, while Treasury yields slightly decreased.

The Present Situation measure worsened by 10.3 points to 124.3, while the Expectations Index was off 4.6 points to 81.7. A reading below 80 on the expectations measure is consistent with a recession.

Respondents' concerns focused mostly on jobs and inflation.

The percentage of people who say jobs are plentiful decreased from 32.7% in August to 30.9%, while the percentage of people who say jobs are hard to get increased from 16.8% to 18.3%.

The 12-month inflation outlook increased to 5.2%, with price increases being the top economic concern.

Peterson stated that the percentage of consumers expecting a recession in the next 12 months increased slightly, despite the overall proportion remaining low.

The Federal Reserve lowered benchmark interest rates by a half percentage point, which is the first reduction in four years and double the typical quarter-point reduction, just a few days before the survey. The Fed cited a more optimistic outlook for inflation and concerns about a weakening job market as reasons for the move.

by Jeff Cox

Markets