In September, the U.S. is on track to experience its third consecutive monthly decline in crude oil.

In September, the U.S. is on track to experience its third consecutive monthly decline in crude oil.
In September, the U.S. is on track to experience its third consecutive monthly decline in crude oil.
  • Despite plans by OPEC+ to increase production in December, oil prices remain under pressure due to soft demand in China, the world's largest crude importer.
  • Red hot tensions in the Middle East are not providing much support for rising prices.
Croft: To date, we haven't seen a supply disruption.

In September, U.S. crude oil prices are projected to experience a third consecutive monthly decline, due to increasing supplies from OPEC+ and sluggish demand in China.

While the global benchmark Brent has dropped approximately 9%, the U.S. benchmark has declined more than 7% in the same month.

"According to Amarpreet Singh, energy analyst at Barclays, oil markets are experiencing a panic attack, but concerns may be overdone as balances are set to loosen next year."

Barclays expects Brent to average $85 in 2025.

Here are Monday's energy prices:

  • The November contract for U.S. crude oil is $68.23, a 5 cent increase, or 0.07%. To date in the year, the price of U.S. crude oil has decreased by nearly 5%.
  • The November contract price for oil is $71.69 per barrel, which is a 29 cent decrease or 0.4% drop compared to the previous month. Year-to-date, the global benchmark has fallen almost 7%.
  • The price of gasoline in October was $1.954 per gallon, which represents a 0.05% increase. However, year to date, gasoline has experienced a 7% decline.
  • The November contract price for natural gas is $2.896 per thousand cubic feet, which represents a 0.21% decrease. To date, gas has experienced a roughly 16% increase in value.

The decrease in oil prices is due to OPEC+'s plan to increase production in December and China's weak demand for crude.

Despite the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah by Israel in an airstrike in Beirut on Friday, prices are not receiving much support from the escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Netanyahu government is intensely targeting the Iran-backed militia group, with fears mounting that Israel may launch a ground operation in Lebanon.

According to Daan Struyven, head oil analyst at Goldman Sachs, the limited geopolitical risk premium reflects market expectations of potentially higher oil supply from Libya and Saudi Arabia.

by Spencer Kimball

Markets