In October, there was a decline in consumer spending, as indicated by the latest CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor tracking card transactions.

• The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reported that October retail sales, excluding autos and gas, decreased by 0.08%.
• The National Retail Federation and CNBC collaborated to create the Retail Monitor, which analyzes 9 billion annual credit and debit card transactions collected and anonymized by Affinity Solutions.
• The October sales data, totaling over $500 billion, exhibited a decline in gas station sales, electronics and appliances, and furniture and home stores.

According to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, the consumer took a spending break ahead of the holiday season, with October retail sales, excluding autos and gas, falling by 0.08%, and core retail, which also removes restaurants, declining by 0.03%.

The new Retail Monitor, which will be launched on Monday, is a joint project between CNBC and the National Retail Federation, utilizing data from Affinity Solutions, a leading consumer purchase insights company. The data is sourced from over 9 billion annual credit and debit card transactions collected and anonymized by Affinity, representing more than $500 billion in sales. The cards are issued by over 1,400 financial institutions.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor is based on actual consumer purchases, while the Census Bureau's retail sales report relies on survey data. The government data is subject to revision as more survey data becomes available, but the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor is not revised, as it is calculated from actual transactions during the month and is seasonally adjusted using the same program as the Census.

NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay stated that the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor will revolutionize the way retail sales are monitored and measured, and Affinity Solutions' extensive database of consumer spending habits will reveal how key demographics and channels are performing for the industry as a whole and for specific retail sectors.

Dan Colarusso, CNBC Senior Vice President of Business News, stated that our audience, including investors and executives, will now possess detailed insights that surpass headline numbers to reveal emerging trends.

Weakness in electronics and furniture

Consumer spending is cooling down, as predicted by Wall Street forecasts, despite an increase of 2.6% in overall retail and core retail sales year over year.

In October, gas station sales, electronics and appliances, and furniture and home stores showed weakness, while sporting goods and hobby stores, nonstore retails, and health and personal care showed strength.

During the Covid pandemic, economists increasingly relied on private sector data to assess the economy. This was due to limitations in government data collection, such as low response rates or inability to gather information. In some cases, economists turned to alternative sources of data, like subway ridership or consumer spending without a card present, to gauge consumer behavior.

The trend of expanding the use of high-frequency and private sector data has persisted even after the pandemic.

Jonathan Silver, founder and CEO of Affinity Solutions, stated that the Retail Monitor signifies a new era of retail intelligence, where data is not just a resource but a roadmap to comprehending and interacting with the contemporary consumer. Additionally, Affinity Solutions is a prominent supplier of data to Wall Street.

The Retail Monitor will offer demographic data on spending by age, income, and location in the near future.