In February, the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor reported a rebound in consumer spending.

• In February, the Retail Monitor's core measure, which excludes autos, gas, and restaurants, increased by 1.06%.
• Despite the impact of the Leap Day, sales increased by 0.4%, which was less than half of the unadjusted increase, but still higher than the 0.2% decline in January.
• Affinity Solutions provides anonymized credit and debit card purchase data to the Retail Monitor.

Despite the extra spending day due to Leap Year, consumer spending in February rebounded from January's dip and registered good gains.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, based on credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions, showed a 1.06% increase in February when excluding autos and gas. Additionally, when excluding restaurants, the Retail Monitor's core measure also increased by 0.95%.

Despite the Leap Day, sales rose 0.4%, which was less than half of the unadjusted gain, but still an improvement from the 0.2% decline in January. When excluding restaurants, the Retail Monitor adjusted for the Leap Day was up 0.3%, compared to a 0.04% gain in January.

Despite the uncertainty about the future direction of interest rates and inflation, the strong job market and real wage increases are still supporting spending, as stated by Matt Shay, the president of the National Retail Federation.

Looking at individual sectors, not adjusted of the Leap Day:

• The percentage of online and non-store sales increased by 0.8% month over month, and 18.08% year over year.
• The sales of sporting goods, hobby, music, and bookstores increased by 2.29% month over month, and 13.67% year over year.
• The sales of health and personal care stores increased by 0.96% month-to-month, and 11.18% year-to-year.
• Unadjusted, clothing and accessories stores experienced a 0.51% increase in sales month over month and an 8.05% increase year over year.

The Leap Day and the index may cause a more significant difference between the sector data and the overall index this month compared to the usual difference with the Census retail data.

The Retail Monitor utilizes anonymized credit and debit card purchase data from Affinity, which is not subject to monthly or annual revisions, unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau.

The Census retail report on Thursday is expected to show a 0.8% gain, reversing the 0.8% decline in January. This suggests that the long-awaited consumer spending slowdown may not have begun in January, according to both the forecast and the CNBC/NRF Monitor for February.