In 2024, the 10 U.S. states with the weakest economies will be identified.
- Although recession fears have decreased in the U.S., some states still face challenges.
- A state's economy is closely examined by companies when considering relocation or expansion.
- The study by CNBC's America's Top States for Business evaluates the economy as one of the ten factors of competitiveness.
Although fears of a U.S. recession have decreased significantly compared to the previous year, the country is not yet out of danger, and some states are more vulnerable than others.
Companies are aware of the importance of locating in a state with a growing and diverse economy, solid fiscal policies, and a strong real estate market when making decisions about where to expand their facilities. CNBC ranks America's Top States for Business based on ten categories of competitiveness, with Economy being one of the most important. Under this year's methodology, Economy accounts for 14% of a state's total score.
We assess economic growth and job growth by examining state finances, fiscal reserves, pension obligations, credit ratings, the health of the housing market, the number of major corporations headquartered in each state, new business formations, and foreign direct investment in each state, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP.
While some states are at the forefront of America's robust economy, these ten states are experiencing a decline.
10. Vermont
Vermont's lack of major corporations headquartered in the state may align with its idyllic vibe, but it negatively impacts the economy. Additionally, the state faces challenges such as lackluster growth, pension obligations, and flat to lower tax revenues. Republican Gov. Phil Scott aims to address these challenges through a strategic plan to "grow the economy, make Vermont more affordable, and protect the most vulnerable." To achieve these goals, the state must attract more workers. Although jobs grew slightly last year, it is a small start.
The economy in 2024 received a score of 144 out of 350 points, with the top-performing states earning a grade of D+.
GDP (2023): $35.1 billion (+1.3%)
Job Growth (2023): 0.9%
Debt Rating & Outlook (Moody's): Aa1, stable
Foreign Direct Investment (2022): 0
Major Corporations: None
9. (tie) Illinois
Illinois has received nine credit rating upgrades in the past three years, with all major rating agencies placing the state in their "A" categories for the first time in years. However, despite this good news, Illinois still has the worst credit rating of any state, which results in higher borrowing costs and adds to the state's many fiscal challenges, including the nation's lowest pension funding ratio and inadequate budget reserves. According to the Pew Charitable Trusts, Illinois could only last 28 days on its total balances (the state's rainy day fund and its ending general fund balance), which is worse than any other state.
The economy in 2024 received a score of 133 out of 350 points, with the top-performing states receiving a grade of D-.
GDP (2023): $875.6 billion (+1.3%)
Job Loss (2023): -0.3%
Debt Rating & Outlook (Moody's): A3, stable
Investment in foreign countries in 2022 was $10.9 billion, which is equivalent to 1.3% of the country's GDP.
Major Corporations: GE Healthcare Technologies, Mondelez International
9. (tie) Maine
Mills stated that this budget prioritizes essential investments for Maine residents' immediate needs, and there was broad agreement among lawmakers on the increased funding for mental health services, child care, housing, and storm relief, among other areas.
The Pew Charitable Trusts' data shows that Mills was correct about flattening revenues. Despite this, Maine's budget situation is not ideal, which has contributed to its less-than-favorable credit rating as it prepares for upcoming challenges.
The economy in 2024 received a score of 133 out of 350 points, with the top-performing states receiving a grade of D-.
GDP (2023): $73.8 billion (+1.9%)
Job Growth (2023): 1%
Debt Rating & Outlook (Moody's): Aa2, positive
Foreign Direct Investment (2022): $0
Major Corporation: IDEXX Laboratories
9. (tie) Rhode Island
Rhode Island has faced pension issues for decades, with the state retiree benefit system being 50% funded and facing $7 billion in unfunded liabilities in 2011. Then-State Treasurer Gina Raimondo, now U.S. Commerce Secretary, championed reforms including benefit cuts, which saved the state $2.75 billion. However, pension problems persist, and retirees in Rhode Island have not received a raise in 12 years. A state pension advisory group has proposed options to restore some or all of the cost of living adjustments that were eliminated by the reforms.
The economy in 2024 received a score of 133 out of 350 points, with the top-performing states receiving a grade of D-.
GDP (2023): $63.2 billion (+1.6%)
Job Growth (2023): 2%
Debt Rating & Outlook (Moody's): Aa2, stable
The amount of foreign direct investment in the country in 2022 was $5 million, which represents 0.008% of the country's GDP.
Major Corporations: CVS Health, Hasbro
6. Kentucky
The Bluegrass State's housing market is experiencing a sluggish performance, with home values appreciating only about 6.4% last year, which is slightly below the national average. Although inventory is gradually building, homes for sale are still sitting on the market longer. Despite the apparent slowdown, it could help address the critical supply gap that housing advocates have been advocating for. However, the housing market is also setting the tone for a somewhat moribund Kentucky economy. While the economy grew at a healthy pace last year, job growth and new business formations are low. Additionally, the state's pension funding ratio is also low, according to the Pew Charitable Trusts.
The economy in 2024 received a score of 132 out of 350 points, with the top-performing states receiving a grade of D-.
GDP (2023): $225.2 billion (+3.5%)
Job Growth (2023): 0.8%
Debt Rating & Outlook (Moody's): Aa3, positive
Investment in foreign countries (2022): $2.3 billion (0.01% of GDP)
Major Corporations: Humana, Yum! Brands
5. Kansas
In May, the housing inventory in The Sunflower State was extremely sparse, with only one month's supply available, according to Redfin. However, the slow price appreciation, with the median sale price increasing by only 0.7% in the past year, has not motivated homebuilders to rush into the market. As a result, the market is somewhat unbalanced.
The 2024 economy score is 129 out of 350 points, with the top states receiving a grade of F.
GDP (2023): $182.3 billion (+4.3%)
Job Growth (2023): 0.5%
Debt Rating & Outlook (Moody's): Aa2, stable
Foreign Direct Investment (2022): $0
Major Corporations: None
4. Louisiana
Louisiana, commonly known as the Pelican State, faces a severe home equity issue, with approximately 11% of home loans being underwater, meaning the owner owes more on their mortgage than the home's value. This is the highest rate in the country, according to real estate data firm ATTOM. Additionally, job growth is low due to a decline in labor force participation, as found in a Louisiana State University study from last year. The study attributed this decline to various factors, including child care concerns, an aging population, and school enrollment. However, researchers also discovered that some Louisianans who left the workforce following Hurricane Katrina never returned. The hurricane, which devastated the New Orleans region, struck in 2005.
The 2024 economy score is 120 out of 350 points, with the top states receiving a grade of F.
GDP (2023): $238.2 billion (3%)
Job Growth (2023): 0.2%
Debt Rating & Outlook (Moody's): Aa2, stable
Foreign Direct Investment (2022): $0
Major Corporations: Entergy, Pool Corporation
3. New Hampshire
Severe labor shortages contributed to a considerable softening of growth in New Hampshire last year. With just 28 available workers for every 100 jobs as of last August, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce found that the state's labor force participation has declined due to an aging population and child-care issues. Researchers at the New Hampshire Department of Labor have found that while the pandemic has made things worse, the trends have been in place since 1990. The New Hampshire Tech Alliance also blames high housing prices, which it says are pushing workers to leave the state.
The 2024 Economy Score is 119 out of 350 points, with the top states receiving a grade of F.
GDP (2023): $91.3 billion (+1.2%)
Job Growth (2023): 1.4%
Debt Rating & Outlook (Moody's): Aa1, stable
Foreign Direct Investment (2022): $0
Major Corporation: Iron Mountain
2. Hawaii
Hawaii's economy has been hit hard by economic shocks over the past few years, and the state was already vulnerable. The pandemic dealt a significant blow to the tourism industry, and the August 2023 wildfires in Maui added to the devastation.
The prediction of flat tourism this year, in terms of both visitors and spending, will have a ripple effect on the job market, state finances, and overall economic growth.
Next year, it is anticipated that the numbers will rebound, provided that Mother Nature and the global economy cooperate.
The 2024 Economy Score is 117 out of 350 points, with the top states receiving a grade of F.
GDP (2023): $86.9 billion (+2%)
Job Growth (2023): 1.7%
Debt Rating & Outlook (Moody's): Aa2, stable
Investment in foreign countries in 2022 was $57 million, which is equivalent to 0.07% of the country's GDP.
Major Corporations: None
1. Mississippi
Mississippi's economy is experiencing slow growth, with job growth being weak. The state's labor force participation rate is the lowest in the nation, at 53.8%, and only about half of Mississippi's working age population is working or seeking a job. This is a significant drag on the economy, and the state is experiencing worker shortages that are paralyzing it.
Last month, Republican Gov. Tate Reeves hailed the latest job numbers.
He declared that our economy is performing exceptionally well, with more job opportunities in Mississippi than ever before. However, this statement may be somewhat misleading, as Mississippi's job growth still lags behind many other states in the country.
According to the latest economic outlook published by Mississippi's University Research Center, there is a glimmer of positive news. Forecasters no longer expect a recession this year, and they've raised their 2024 growth forecasts, in part due to more immigration than expected easing labor shortages. However, growth will come at the expense of 2025 and 2026, suggesting that Mississippi may remain the state with America's worst economy.
The 2024 economy score is 90 out of 350 points, with the top states receiving a grade of F.
GDP (2023): $114.9 billion (+0.7%)
Job Growth (2023): 0.1%
Debt Rating & Outlook (Moody's): Aa2, stable
Investment in foreign countries in 2022 was $3 million, which is equivalent to 0.003% of the country's GDP.
Major Corporations: None
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