If Iran's energy infrastructure is attacked, the oil market will experience a shock, according to analysts.

• According to Bjarne Schieldrop, the chief commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB, if Iran's oil infrastructure is destroyed, oil prices could easily reach $200 or more per barrel.

Analysts on CNBC warned on Thursday that oil markets are being too complacent, given the risk of major supply disruptions in the Middle East, and one analyst predicted that crude futures could rally to more than $200 a barrel.

As a member of OPEC, Iran plays a significant role in the global oil market. In fact, it is estimated that up to 4% of the world's oil supply could be at risk if Iran's oil infrastructure is targeted by Israel.

If you removed Iran's oil installations and reduced exports by 2 million barrels, the market would wonder what would happen in the Strait of Hormuz. This would increase the risk premium for oil, according to Schieldrop.

Schieldrop stated that if Iranian oil installations were removed, oil prices could reach $200 or more.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway located between Iran and Oman, is of great strategic importance as it connects crude producers in the Middle East with major markets worldwide.

On Thursday, Brent crude futures with December expiry increased by nearly 2% to $75.32 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose more than 2.1% to $71.60.

During a visit to Qatar on Thursday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that his country was not seeking war with Israel. He cautioned, however, that Tehran would respond forcefully to any additional Israeli actions.

Schieldrop stated that the conflict's escalation will determine the outcome, and Israel is likely to retaliate after the latest Iranian attack, which may occur within five days before the October 7 anniversary.

Will the attack be weak, like in April, or will it be more violent and target military, nuclear, and oil installations? This is what is causing concern in the market.

Energy market complacency?

Despite the rising tensions in the Middle East, energy analysts caution about a growing bearish outlook in the market.

Amrita Sen, founder and director of research at Energy Aspects, stated on CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday that she believes the oil market is currently too complacent.

Since 2019, geopolitical risks have not led to oil supply losses, as seen in Abqaiq.

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At the time, the 2019 attack by Yemen's Houthi rebels on Saudi Aramco facilities led to a significant increase in oil prices.

The U.S. is likely to send clear diplomatic messages to Israel if it considers launching retaliatory strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure.

The U.S. is involved in the issue that everyone is discussing, and it is crucial to remember that U.S. elections are approaching. Therefore, the message from the U.S. is clear: do not target energy infrastructure or nuclear facilities.

John Evans, an analyst at oil broker PVM, stated in a research note published Thursday that historically, oil prices would have exhibited a "very different and violent reaction" to missile strikes and bombings in multiple countries in the Middle East.

"As expected, any topic related to Israel elicits strong emotional responses, but in terms of oil markets, Iran's involvement is likely to benefit bulls," Evans stated.

Before oil market participants can shake off their skepticism, the expansion of war and its damage must be proven.