Goldman Sachs predicts that the price of crude oil could increase by $20 in the event of an Iran oil shock.

• If Israeli retaliation leads to a decrease in Iranian oil production, oil prices could increase by $20 per barrel, according to Goldman Sachs.
• As a member of OPEC, Iran plays a crucial role in the global oil market. It produces approximately 4 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for about 4% of the world's oil supply.

If Israeli retaliation leads to a decrease in Iranian oil production, oil prices could increase by $20 per barrel, predicts Goldman Sachs.

On Thursday, U.S. crude futures increased by approximately 5%, and they continued to rise on Friday morning due to worries that Israel may retaliate against Iran's oil industry following the missile attack in Tehran.

According to Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs' co-head of global commodities research, if Iranian oil production drops by 1 million barrels per day, oil prices will peak at approximately $20 per barrel next year.

If OPEC+ does not increase production in response to the oil cartel's decision, Struyven predicts.

If key OPEC+ members, such as Saudi Arabia and UAE, offset some of the production losses, oil markets could see a smaller boost of slightly less than $10 barrel, he added.

The Israel-Hamas conflict has had minimal impact on the oil market, with prices remaining stable due to increased US production and weak demand from China.

U.S. crude oil prices have increased for three consecutive days following Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel, which has intensified tensions in the region. Recent reports from industry experts indicate a potential threat to supply.

As a member of OPEC, Iran plays a crucial role in the global oil market. It produces nearly four million barrels of oil daily, and an estimated 4% of the world's supply could be at risk if its oil infrastructure is targeted by Israel, who is considering a countermove.

MST Marquee's senior energy analyst, Saul Kavonic, suggested that Iran's Kharg Island, which accounts for 90% of the country's crude exports, could be a potential target.

"The bigger concern is whether this is the start of a more immediate escalation of the conflict, which could have a significant impact on transit through the Strait of Hormuz," he said.

Other analysts agreed that if Israel attacks Iran's oil industry, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could become a concern.

If its oil sector is affected, Iran has previously threatened to disrupt flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait between Oman and Iran is a vital waterway that connects crude oil producers in the Middle East with major global markets, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

On Thursday, when asked by reporters if the U.S. would support an Israeli strike on Iranian oil facilities, President Joe Biden responded, "We're discussing that. I think that would be a little - anyway." Oil analysts believe these remarks were the reason prices increased.

CNBC has reached out to the White House for comment.

If a full-scale war occurs, Brent oil prices are likely to rise above USD100/bbl, with any potential shut-in of the strait potentially pushing prices up to USD150/bbl or higher, according to Fitch Solutions' BMI in a note published Wednesday.

BMI's analysts stated that the probability of a full-scale war is "relatively low," but the risks of a misstep by either side have been elevated.

If Israel attacks Iran's oil infrastructure, OPEC+ may not have enough spare capacity to replace Iranian exports, as the world's spare oil capacity is mainly located in the Middle East, particularly among the Gulf states, which could be endangered if a larger conflict escalates.