Economic slowdown in the US, European recession, and Russian double-digit decline due to war fallout.

The Ukraine invasion is expected to slow the US economy's growth and increase inflation, while Europe's economy may near recession and Russia will experience a deep, double-digit decline.

The CNBC Rapid Update predicts that the US economy will experience a 3.2% GDP growth this year, a slight decrease from the February forecast, but still above the trend. Additionally, the Fed's preferred indicator for inflation, personal consumption expenditures, is expected to rise by 4.3% this year, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous survey in February.

Despite warnings from forecasters, much about the U.S. economy's response to an oil shock remains unknown, with crude prices surging above $126 a barrel and national average gasoline prices over $4 per gallon. Most see risks to their forecasts skewed toward higher inflation and lower growth.

The removal of Russian oil from the global supply could result in a dire economic situation, according to economists.

If Russia completely stops exporting 4.3 million barrels of oil to the US and Europe, the consequences will be significant, according to JPMorgan. The longer and more severe the disengagement, the greater the disruption and the impact on global growth.

The CNBC Rapid Update reports that the U.S. economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3.5% in the second quarter, up from 1.9% in the first. However, this estimate is 0.8 percentage points lower than the prior survey, indicating that the economy is still recovering from the omicron wave, but not as strongly as inflation continues to rise.

This quarter's inflation estimates are 1.7 percentage points higher, while next quarter's are 1.6 percentage points higher. Inflation is predicted to decrease from 4.3% to 2.4% by year-end.

Overall, U.S. economic growth is seen enduring.

According to economist Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont, energy prices are increasing and may remain high in the future, but the recent spike may decrease within a few months, resulting in a short-term impact on growth and inflation. However, consumers have significant liquidity, income growth, and wealth to fall back on.

The U.S. oil production and demand being roughly balanced is a unique factor that sets this price shock apart from others. As a result, money is transferred from consumers to domestic producers within the economy, rather than from the U.S. to foreign countries. This will have a greater impact on individual American families and certain regions of the country, but will also increase the profits of U.S. energy companies.

By increasing drilling, oil companies will likely boost growth using their profits.

Some experts predict that the US may experience a recessionary inflation due to rising energy and food prices, which could lead to a significant increase in inflation.

Europe to be hit harder

Most agree that effect will be worse in Europe.

Barclays revised its growth forecast for Europe this year from 4.1% to 3.5%.

The investment bank stated that the main contagion channels for the global stagflationary shock are soaring commodity prices and risk aversion in financial markets, with Europe being the most exposed region.

JPMorgan has revised its forecast for European growth this year, predicting a 3.2% increase in GDP, despite having previously taken off nearly a full percentage from its initial estimate. However, the second quarter has been filled in at zero.

JPMorgan predicts that Russia will experience the most severe economic decline of all countries due to the imposition of unprecedented sanctions, which have resulted in a 12.5% decline in GDP and have isolated the country's economy from the rest of the world.

The Institute for International Finance predicts a 15% contraction, which is twice the decline experienced during the global financial crisis. According to IIF's Chief Economist Robin Brooks, "We see risks as tilted to the downside. Russia will never be the same again."