Early estimates suggest that Hurricane Milton may cause up to $175 billion in damages.

Early estimates suggest that Hurricane Milton may cause up to $175 billion in damages.
Early estimates suggest that Hurricane Milton may cause up to $175 billion in damages.
  • The potential of Hurricane Milton to cause damages exceeding $50 billion is a possibility, with a worst-case scenario resulting in devastation worth more than $175 billion.
  • Some analysts predict that a 1-in-100 year event would cause $175 billion in losses for landfall in the Tampa region and $70 billion in losses in the Fort Myers region, according to Jefferies analysts.

According to leading Wall Street analysts, Hurricane Milton's once-in-a-century potential could result in damages of more than $50 billion, with the potential to leave behind devastation approaching $175 billion or more in a worst-case scenario.

In addition to the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene, a new threat is emerging, which could set a new record for destruction.

"A major hurricane in Florida's most populated regions could result in mid-double-digit billion dollar losses, according to Jefferies equity analyst Yaron Kinar and others. Some estimate that a 1-in-100 year event would result in $175 billion in losses for landfall in the Tampa region and $70 billion in losses in the Fort Myers region."

The cost of the potential impact will vary depending on the timing and location, with a landfall near Fort Myers being less expensive.

To compare the historical impact of a storm, analysts can examine the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, which struck the Fort Myers area two years ago as a Category 4 hurricane and resulted in over $50 billion in losses. Ian was categorized as a once-in-20-year event.

Waters: The damage from Hurricane Helene is $11 billion...most from wind.

If Milton's journey continues through the more advanced Tampa area, the potential losses could be even greater, according to Kinar.

Milton is currently in Category 4, but its strength may decrease before its full impact is felt.

The market is factoring in a potential loss of over $50 billion at Wells Fargo, with a range of potential damages set from $10 billion to $100 billion.

The region has been devastated by Helene, which hit 12 days ago and caused an estimated $11 billion in damages. Additionally, the National Flood Insurance Program is expected to suffer losses of approximately $2 billion due to the property damage.

The firm's analysts have not yet estimated potential damage from Milton.

Moody's chief risk modeling officer, Mohsen Rahnama, stated that Hurricane Helene has been the most impactful event of the 2024 hurricane season so far, but this may soon change with Major Hurricane Milton's impending impact on Florida.

According to Moody's, many regions affected by Hurricane Helene do not have flood insurance, meaning most of the damage will be uninsured, and economic property losses will greatly exceed insured losses, as stated by Firas Saleh, the firm's director of U.S. inland flood models.

On Tuesday, Milton slightly weakened but maintained winds of 145 mph. It is predicted to strike Tampa on Wednesday morning and cause 10- to 15-foot storm surges in Tampa Bay.

Although the storm is predicted to cause significant harm to the region, it is not expected to pose the same level of danger to neighboring states as Helene did.

by Jeff Cox

Markets