Despite efforts to shift away from coal, China and India continue to heavily rely on it, making it 'very difficult' to achieve climate targets.

• Despite plans to reduce emissions, both India and China remain heavily reliant on coal, which is the cheapest and most dependable way to meet increasing electricity demand.
• For the past 20 years, global electricity generation from coal has been steadily increasing, with the largest gains occurring in China (+319 TWh) and India (+100 TWh) in the previous year, as per a study by Ember.

A recent study shows that China and India have not decreased their coal-based electricity generation, hindering their efforts to achieve their climate goals.

Despite their plans to reduce emissions, Asian countries continue to heavily rely on coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, as the most affordable and reliable way to meet rising electricity demand.

Nearly double the global electricity generation from coal has been observed over the past two decades, with China and India contributing the most to this increase, according to a new study by Ember.

Coal is the largest source of electricity generation globally, accounting for over one-third of it. Despite this, it will remain essential in industries such as iron and steel until new technologies become available.

According to Francis Johnson, senior research fellow and climate lead at the Stockholm Environment Institute's Asia Center, meeting targets without a rapid reduction in coal usage will be extremely challenging, and it will be impossible to achieve.

"We're not phasing out coal fast enough," he warned.

China

Despite its efforts to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, Asia's largest economy continues to rely heavily on coal.

Since the start of the decade, coal demand in the East Asian country has increased by more than five times, while electricity demand has surged by seven times, according to Ember's research.

In 2023, China, the world's largest coal producer, emitted 5,491 million tonnes of carbon dioxide from electricity generation, which is at least three times more than the U.S. (1,570 MtCO2) and India (1,470 MtCO2), according to study data.

The country has made significant advancements in renewable energy development, resulting in a decrease in the annual emission increase rate from 9% to 4.4% between 2001 and 2023, according to the energy think tank.

Ember's global insights program director, Dave Jones, informed CNBC that China is near its peak emissions and the transition to clean energy is happening at an unprecedented pace.

Despite the significant increase in electricity demand, the growth in renewable energy sources appears sufficient, according to Jones.

In 2023, wind and solar combined reached new highs of 16% in China's total electricity generation, which was contributed by clean electricity. Hydropower, the second-largest energy source, made up 13% of the mix, while clean electricity accounted for 35%.

If wind and solar generation had not increased since 2015 and demand had been met by coal, emissions would have been 20% higher in 2023, the report stated. However, it noted that these two sources can now generate enough electricity to power Japan.

Johnson from the Stockholm Environment Institute cautioned that China must reduce its reliance on fossil fuels.

"Reducing coal usage is crucial, but it's not enough. Simply decreasing coal emissions does not eliminate emissions in other areas," he pointed out.

India

Last year, India surpassed China as the world's most populous country, resulting in a 5.4% increase in power demand compared to 2022. This was significantly higher than the global average increase.

By 2030, the country's leaders expect 50% of its power generation to come from non-fossil fuel sources, as they have been optimistic about its path to net zero.

According to Climate Action Tracker, emissions from the power sector are predicted to peak around 2030, while total energy-related emissions will reach their highest around 2034.

The Ember study revealed that the country relied on fossil fuels for 78% of its electricity generation, with coal accounting for 75% of that mix due to increased pressure from droughts.

Like China, India has also made significant strides in other forms of renewable energy.

According to Ember, India surpassed Japan as the world's third largest solar power generator in 2023.

Last year, India's solar power generation totaled 113 terawatt-hours (TWh), which represents a 145% increase from 2019. Despite this, India ranks third in solar power generation, behind China (584 TWh) and the U.S. (238 TWh).

Aditya Lolla, Ember's Asia Programme Director, stated to CNBC that while emissions are expected to increase with demand growth in China and India, there comes a point where GDP growth must decouple from emissions, with the first peak and subsequent fall occurring first.