Deal-making is anticipated to be facilitated by the Trump presidency, according to Wall Street expectations.
- Corporate leaders and Wall Street dealmakers anticipate an increase in merger and acquisition activity following President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration in January.
- High interest rates, soaring company valuations, and a tight regulatory environment have slowed down deal-making in recent years.
- The potential mergers of Kroger and Albertsons, as well as Tapestry and Capri, may face less regulatory hurdles under a Trump administration.
Corporate leaders and Wall Street dealmakers anticipate an increase in merger and acquisition activity following President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration in January.
The red wave is expected to loosen regulations on deal-making, with plenty of pent-up demand, as Trump defeated Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republicans claimed a majority of the Senate in elections this week.
"Jeffrey Solomon, president of TD Cowen, stated on CNBC's "Money Movers" Wednesday that he believes the regulatory environment will be more conducive to economic growth in a Trump environment, with lighter and targeted regulation."
The Trump administration will focus the scaled-back regulation on specific areas of interest, rather than a comprehensive reassessment of the entire landscape, as Solomon stated.
The Biden administration's Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission, led by Chair Lina Khan, have been closely scrutinizing pending deals. This has been seen as a deterrent to deal flow, with some citing it as a chilling factor. Additionally, high interest rates and inflated company valuations have also contributed to this trend.
In September, Khan stated that increased scrutiny of mergers would lead to greater deterrence of illegal mergers. Despite criticism, there is now optimism about a future FTC with a more lenient approach.
If interest rates decrease and corporate tax rates are lowered, the conditions for an active M&A market will be met, according to a top dealmaker who spoke to CNBC anonymously.
On Wednesday, markets surged to a new record high after the Republican presidential victory, with the S&P 500 soaring 1,500 points.
Sector specific
Experts predict that certain sectors, such as finance and pharmaceuticals, may benefit under a second Trump administration.
"According to Howard Gutman, private equity strategy and coverage lead for MorganFranklin Consulting, domestic manufacturing could benefit from increased tariffs and a growth in technology, which slowed down due to a tighter antitrust environment. Furthermore, the aerospace and defense industry is expected to grow as it has historically done during past Republican administrations, paired with the broader geopolitical environment."
Deals may still be challenging to secure in industries other than tech.
On Wednesday, tech leaders took to social media to congratulate Trump, but one M&A advisor who spoke to CNBC anonymously believes that Trump's disdain for Big Tech companies, who are typically active deal-makers, may keep them from participating in M&A activity.
The CHIPS Act may face opposition from the GOP, which could make semiconductor consolidation difficult, an advisor warned, while adding that it is too early to predict what a Trump presidency would entail. CNBC previously reported that recently discussed a potential takeover.
According to Jonathan Miller, CEO of Integrated Media, the most straightforward approach is to have more deals and less regulation, with the administration exerting influence and possibly choosing winners and losers.
Many regional banks, recognizing the need for growth, will likely consolidate, said a former industry executive. This advisor noted that smaller banks have been acquired for some time, but the pace and size of those acquisitions will likely increase under a Trump presidency.
One health-care-focused M&A advisor stated that pharmaceutical executives are optimistic that lighter antitrust enforcement could facilitate deal-making. The advisor added that antitrust enforcement has "hardly gotten worse" under either administration but now believes it will improve "meaningfully."
Over the past four years, Khan has argued that monopolies in biopharma mergers can hinder the development of new drugs in specific disease areas and negatively impact consumer choice. Illumina announced last year that it would divest diagnostic test maker Grail following contentious disputes with the FTC and European antitrust regulators.
Last year, the FTC blocked Sanofi's acquisition of a drug in development for Pompe disease from Maze Therapeutics, which ultimately led to the termination of the deal.
The key consideration is whether Lina Khan will be bounced on day one, but even if there are fewer changes at the FTC, this administration will be more amicable towards business combinations, as stated by Jared Holz, Mizuho health-care equity strategist, in an email on Wednesday.
One dealmaker predicted a broad M&A uptick, but believed the financial sector and pharmaceuticals would experience a more significant resurgence. Additionally, the deal-maker noted that with the Senate's flip, antitrust voices like Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., may face more obstacles in pushing for DOJ or FTC investigations.
Eyes on retail, media
A Trump presidency could facilitate the approval of several retail deals that have been hindered by the FTC, including the bid to acquire a grocery chain and the proposed acquisition of .
A federal judge is currently reviewing the merger between Kroger and Albertsons, while Tapestry is working to appeal a federal order that granted the FTC's motion for a preliminary injunction against the tie-up.
"The FTC's hostile stance on mergers and acquisitions is likely to be replaced with a more favorable worldview, according to GlobalData managing director Neil Saunders. While this does not guarantee approval for big deals like Kroger-Albertsons, it does mean that others like Tapestry-Capri will receive a warmer reception."
The ongoing turmoil in the media industry has prompted many to consider consolidation as the next step for the sector.
David Zaslav, CEO of Warner Bros. Discovery, emphasized the potential benefits of loosened regulations on Thursday, reiterating his earlier comments at the Allen & Co. Sun Valley conference.
An upcoming new administration may bring about a pace of change and opportunity for consolidation, offering a positive and accelerated impact on the industry, according to Zaslav on an earnings call.
Broadcast station group owner on Wednesday echoed a similar sentiment.
"During an earnings call, CEO Chris Ripley stated, "We're thrilled about the impending regulatory landscape." He added, "It's as if a dark cloud has been lifted from the industry.""
The track record of media industry deals between the previous Trump administration and the current Biden administration is divided.
The DOJ permitted Trump's company to acquire assets, but later filed a lawsuit to prevent the Time Warner deal from proceeding.
The sale of Simon & Schuster to Penguin Random House was blocked by a federal judge, while the mergers of MGM and Warner Bros. and Discovery Communications were approved under the Biden administration.
Earlier this year, Skydance Media and Paramount Global reached an agreement to merge, with the expectation of obtaining regulatory approval in 2025.
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