David Roche, a seasoned strategist, advises against investing in bonds, suggesting instead that investors should "short the whole lot of them."

David Roche, a seasoned strategist, advises against investing in bonds, suggesting instead that investors should "short the whole lot of them."
David Roche, a seasoned strategist, advises against investing in bonds, suggesting instead that investors should "short the whole lot of them."
  • European sovereign debt yields ticked higher across the board on Monday morning.
  • After Klaas Knot, president of the Dutch central bank and a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, made hawkish comments on Sunday, the European bond market saw some moves.
  • Despite unprecedented inflation, the ECB has not yet raised interest rates.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on December 08, 2021 in New York City.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on December 08, 2021 in New York City. (Spencer Platt | Getty Images)

A strategist has advised investors to short government bonds with higher interest rates being "inevitable" around the world.

On Monday, David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, discussed his perspective on fixed income investments during an uncertain economic environment while appearing on CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."

He stated that he would be short all bonds, including German bunds with a positive yield, Italian BTPs, U.S. Treasurys, and U.K. gilts, due to the expected inflationary spiral in the U.K.

On Monday morning, European sovereign debt yields increased across the board. The yield on rose by 3.5 basis points to -0.215%, its highest since September 2015. Additionally, yields on briefly reached their highest since 2018. Last month, rose above zero for the first time in almost three years.

On Monday, the highest yield on the since May 2020 was recorded at 1.776%, and the highest yield on since mid-2020 was observed. In the U.S., the yield on the fell to approximately 1.9014% by 10:30 a.m. London time after a significant increase in the previous session.

The inverse relationship between yields and bond prices means that traders can profit by betting on a decline in value when they "short" a bond.

Veteran strategist David Roche on bonds: 'Short the whole lot of them'

After Klaas Knot, president of the Dutch central bank and a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council, made hawkish comments on Sunday, the moves in the European bond market occurred. Knot stated on Dutch TV show “Buitenhof” that he anticipated the ECB to raise interest rates by the end of this year, with a second rate hike likely to follow shortly afterward.

ECB President Christine Lagarde did not reinforce her previous guidance that a rate hike was "very unlikely" in 2022 during a press conference last week, stating that the economic situation "has indeed changed."

The ECB has not yet increased interest rates despite high inflation, with the most recent reading reaching a record 5.1% last month, and the central bank lagging behind its British and American counterparts in normalizing its monetary policy.

Roche predicted that all major central banks would raise interest rates this year, and that rates are still on the rise.

On Sunday, White House national security advisor Jake Sullivan warned that an invasion of Ukraine by Russia could occur "any day now," while Roche cautioned that such an event would drastically change the global economy and financial markets.

by Chloe Taylor

markets