As Russia invades Ukraine, wheat and soybeans reach their highest levels in nearly a decade.

As Russia invades Ukraine, wheat and soybeans reach their highest levels in nearly a decade.
As Russia invades Ukraine, wheat and soybeans reach their highest levels in nearly a decade.
  • On Thursday, U.S. wheat and corn futures experienced their daily trading limits, while soybeans reached their highest levels since 2012, as Russian forces launched missiles at Ukraine and landed troops on its south coast, intensifying concerns about global food supplies.
  • For the third consecutive day, wheat reached its highest point in over nine years, while corn hit a new eight-month high.
  • Russia's demands for an end to NATO's eastward expansion have led to the start of war in Europe, as Putin has authorized a military operation in eastern Ukraine.
Soybeans in a field at Salto do Jacui, in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, on April 6, 2021.
Soybeans in a field at Salto do Jacui, in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, on April 6, 2021. (Silvio Avila | Afp | Getty Images)

On Thursday, U.S. wheat and corn futures experienced their daily trading limits, while soybeans reached their highest levels since 2012, as Russian forces launched missiles at Ukraine and landed troops on its south coast, intensifying concerns about global food supplies.

For the third consecutive day, wheat reached its highest point in over nine years, while corn hit a new eight-month high.

Following a televised address by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, explosions were heard in the early morning hours of Kyiv.

Russia's demands for an end to NATO's eastward expansion have led to the start of war in Europe, as Putin has authorized a military operation in eastern Ukraine.

ING commodity strategists noted that due to heightened tensions between Russia and Ukraine and uncertainty about Russian grain supplies in the coming months, traders have chosen to keep their grain at home instead of shipping it overseas.

The Black Sea region accounts for about 29% of global wheat exports, 19% of world corn supplies, and 80% of world sunflower oil exports. Traders are concerned that any military engagement could disrupt crop movement and prompt importers to seek alternative sources of these commodities.

The ING strategists stated that the tensions between Russia and Ukraine have intensified the risks to global supply markets, particularly for wheat exports from the European Union.

The Chicago Board of Trade May wheat contract experienced a 5.7% increase to $9.34-3/4 a bushel, reaching its highest point since July 2012.

As of 0448 GMT, corn was up 4.7% at $7.13 a bushel, having reached its highest price since June 10 at $7.16-1/4.

Soybeans gained 1.6% to $16.97 a bushel, advancing for a sixth session. Earlier, it hit its highest since September 2012 at $17.19-1/2.

Despite government plans to release soybeans from reserves, soymeal futures reached a record high in China due to concerns about tight market supplies.

This month, Rabobank's commodity strategists evaluated the effects of a Russian invasion on food prices.

Three macroeconomic war scenarios were evaluated by them: a short, disruptive conflict in Ukraine; war and effective sanctions against Moscow; and war, effective sanctions, and secondary measures against countries continuing to trade with Russia.

If there is a war, Rabobank strategists predict that wheat prices will increase by 30% and corn prices will rise by 20%. However, they caution that the situation would be even more unfavorable for grains, vegetable oils, and fertilizers if there is war and effective international sanctions against Moscow.

If sanctions remain in effect during the July harvest, it will significantly reduce global grain availability, forcing demand rationing through higher prices. Wheat prices would double, and corn would increase by 30%, according to strategists in a Feb. 18 research note.

Wheat area in the northern hemisphere could increase by autumn 2022 through reducing other crops, particularly feed grains. However, the wheat market would only partially balance by mid-2023 when those crops are harvested.

— CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed to this report.

by Reuters

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