Anthony Scaramucci expresses doubt about the recession signal indicated by the bond market.

• On Monday, the U.S. 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2006. On Tuesday, the yield spread between the 2-year and the 10-year rate came close to inverting but stayed positive.
• The inversion of the yield curve has historically signaled recessions, indicating their concern about the economy's health.
• Anthony Scaramucci of SkyBridge Capital advised caution when predicting a recession, according to a report by CNBC.

While a recession signal was detected in the bond market this week, Anthony Scaramucci of SkyBridge Capital advised caution in predicting a downturn, according to CNBC.

On Monday, the U.S. 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2006. On Tuesday, the yield spread between the 2-year and the 10-year rate came close to inverting but stayed positive.

Prior to recessions, the inversion of the yield curve has historically indicated investors' concerns about the economy's health.

According to Scaramucci, while historically a signal of a recession may occur 12 to 18 months from now based on the data, he will exercise caution in interpreting this information.

As the bond market thrives, long-term bonds offer higher yields, while short-term yields are lower. Investors anticipate greater returns on their investments when they lend money for an extended period.

An inverted yield curve, where short-term bonds pay a higher yield than long-term ones, indicates a distortion in the market and suggests bond investors are concerned about the economy's future.

Scaramucci stated that he wouldn't rush to predict a recession.

The hedge fund founder stated that there are two competing events happening simultaneously: the conclusion of the pandemic or the easing of lockdown measures in many parts of the world, and the uncertainty about a possible cease-fire in Ukraine and Russia.

He added that the abating of the situation is necessary before we can analyze the data and determine if it's consistent with historical guidance and recession indications.

Scaramucci stated that he is not fully convinced of an impending recession, as the global economy is currently performing well.

He expressed caution while remaining optimistic about the U.S. economy and stock market.

More growth ahead?

The Russia-Ukraine war has intensified market anxiety about a possible economic slowdown due to rising inflation.

According to Dow Jones, analysts anticipate that the March employment report, which will be released on Friday, will reveal that 460,000 jobs were added.

In 2021, the U.S. economy experienced its fastest growth since 1984, despite a 3.4% decline caused by the pandemic in the previous year.

The CNBC Rapid Update indicates that the U.S. economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3.5% in the second quarter, up from 1.9% in the first. However, this estimate is 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous survey, indicating that the economy is still recovering from the omicron wave, but not as strongly as before, with inflation worsening.

— CNBC’s Steve Liesman contributed to this report.