An iron curtain is being redrawn across Europe by Putin, according to a veteran Russian analyst.
- An emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, Timothy Ash, stated on CNBC on Thursday that the event taking place is a globally systemic occurrence and Putin is drawing an iron curtain across Europe.
- Economic sanctions and increased military spending are being deployed by Western and NATO countries as barriers against Russia, particularly in the areas of military, politics, and finance.
- The leaders of the United States and NATO have pledged to impose harsh penalties on Russian officials and its economy in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The stunning news of Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine on multiple fronts was met with surprise and concern by countries and markets on Thursday morning.
Putin's offensive against Ukraine, which has been building up its military for months with more than 100,000 troops, and a speech denying Ukraine's statehood, has disrupted the international order.
Putin is redrawing an iron curtain across emerging Europe, according to Timothy Ash, an emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management and a longtime Russia and Ukraine analyst, who made this statement on CNBC on Thursday.
It is necessary to reevaluate our perspective on European and Western security, the influence of Russian oligarchs, Russian businesses, and Russia Inc. in Western markets.
Putin often describes the collapse of the Soviet Union as a "tragedy" and one of the "greatest catastrophes" in world history, indicating his longing for Russia's more imperialist past.
According to some regional analysts and historians, the "iron curtain," a term coined by Winston Churchill in 1946 to describe the Soviet Union's political, military, and ideological barrier, has resurfaced in a new form.
Since 1999, the former KGB colonel has been in control of Russia and desires to reconstitute the geopolitical power and territorial reach of the Soviet empire in Europe, reestablish its prestige and influence worldwide, as stated by Pierre Atlas, a political scientist and senior lecturer at Indiana University–Purdue University in an op-ed earlier this month.
The Kremlin has denied that there will be an occupation, stating that it is "demilitarizing" Ukraine and "protecting" people from Ukrainian government aggression, which Ukraine and NATO members dispute. Reports indicate that Russian missiles and artillery strikes hit multiple Ukrainian cities on Thursday.
Despite no evidence that Ukraine poses a threat to Russia's security, Putin has vowed to protect it and stated Moscow's aim to neutralize Ukraine's military. For weeks, he rejected Western assertions that he would launch an invasion of Ukraine.
A new iron curtain?
Economic sanctions and increased defense spending are likely to be implemented by Western and NATO countries against Russia, with U.S. President Joe Biden and NATO heads of state pledging severe sanctions on Russian officials and its economy, while Ukraine's leaders urge global isolation of Russia.
Maximilian Hess, a fellow at Foreign Policy Research Institute, stated that Putin was aware of the sanctions response the U.S. and the West would draw, and that the threatened sanctions would make the "iron curtain" a reality.
He stated that it was a choice for the Biden administration to act, and as a result, the Russian economy would be affected.
The U.S. is preparing to impose additional sanctions on Moscow due to its previous economic penalties on Russian banks, oligarchs, and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline not stopping Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
As it is evident that the process is already in motion, we can anticipate extensive constraints on trading Russian debt and financing for Russian businesses, according to Hess. He predicts that the penalties will resemble the Iran sanctions regime more closely than any other option.
"Sanctioning individuals is necessary but has limitations. It will be a 'maximum pressure' 2.0 campaign, but this will have substantial costs for the West if Russia responds in kind. I too expect that it will. Geopolitical turmoil is imminent in agricultural, metals and hydrocarbons market, and here to stay," he said.
On Thursday, Moscow's main stock index hit a record low against , falling as much as 45% during the day. International stock markets also traded heavily in the red, and the prices of safe-haven assets like gold and bonds soared. Additionally, the prices of precious metals such as silver, platinum, and palladium, which are major Russian exports, also spiked.
The effectiveness of sanctions imposed on Russia by Ukraine and some Western lawmakers, such as severing Russia from the global SWIFT banking system, is being questioned due to Russia's accumulation of international reserves and efforts towards de-dollarization of its economy since the 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned the U.N. General Assembly in New York on Wednesday that the start of a major war in Ukraine would mean the end of the current world order, and called on the international community to prevent Putin from taking such a step.
Kuleba stated that if Russia does not receive a severe, swift, and decisive response, it will lead to the bankruptcy of the international security system and institutions responsible for maintaining global security order.
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