An analyst predicts that Taylor Swift's London Eras Tour will not significantly impact the Bank of England's interest rate policy.

An analyst predicts that Taylor Swift's London Eras Tour will not significantly impact the Bank of England's interest rate policy.
An analyst predicts that Taylor Swift's London Eras Tour will not significantly impact the Bank of England's interest rate policy.
  • This week, the pop artist returned to Britain for five more concerts at Wembley Stadium, bringing her total to eight shows this summer, surpassing the record for any solo singer to perform at the stadium.
  • James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities, stated that the Eras Tour concert has a "significant economic multiplier effect."
  • The tour has had a "significant impact" and has been welcomed by the hospitality industry alongside a summer of sport, as UK Hospitality CEO Kate Nicholls stated on "Street Signs Europe" on Wednesday.

The surge in restaurant and hotel bookings in the U.K. resulting from Taylor Swift's record-breaking Eras Tour is unlikely to significantly affect the Bank of England's rate cutting policy, according to one analyst.

This week, the pop artist returned to Britain for five more concerts at Wembley Stadium, bringing her total to eight shows this summer, surpassing the record for any solo singer to perform at the stadium.

In May, Barclays forecasted that 1.2 million ticket-holders would spend an average of £848 ($1,105) each, resulting in a £997 million boost to the U.K. economy from the tour.

James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities, stated that the Eras Tour concert has a "significant economic multiplier effect."

Rossiter stated on "Squawk Box Europe" Wednesday that the restaurant bookings have shown a more significant impact this time around.

Taylor Swift's UK concerts contributed to 'big surge' in restaurant bookings, strategist says

"We examined OpenTable data and observed a spike in June around her concerts here. Additionally, we noticed a significant increase over the weekend."

According to Rossiter, a big city like London typically experiences an increase in tourism during the summer, despite the concerts having less of an impact on airfare and hotels.

Rossiter stated that TD Securities' base case is that the Bank of England will implement a quarterly pace of 25 basis point cuts, following the first interest rate cut of 50 basis points delivered earlier this month.

The Eras Tour could potentially defer a possible September interest rate cut due to its potential impact on the country's inflation data, as previously stated by TD Securities.

Rossiter stated on Wednesday that he anticipates the central bank will proceed with rate reductions "with caution."

Their August meeting had a cautious tone as they expressed concern about some of the underlying data. They were nervous about the wage growth above 5% and the current state of services inflation, which was not yet comfortable for them to race back down to neutral.

Taylor Swift has significantly boosted spending on accommodation, food and drink, says UKHospitality

The analysis of monetary policy by the Bank of England is complicated by big events such as a Coronation or a Taylor Swift concert, as these events add "distortions" to the data, according to Rossiter.

He stated that the Eras Tour would not usually affect inflation in the future.

He said that he believes the Bank of England will focus more on wages and inflation while being cautious about distortions like the Taylor Swift impact.

'Significant impact' for hospitality

The tour has had a "significant impact" and has been welcomed by the hospitality industry alongside a summer of sport, as UK Hospitality CEO Kate Nicholls stated on "Street Signs Europe" on Wednesday.

Nicholls stated that Taylor's diverse age group audience makes visitors stay for extended periods.

"Restaurants and bars around concert venues have been welcoming the practice of pre-booking, eating and drinking out, and socializing during concerts."

The CEO stated that hotel occupancy was at approximately 96%, significantly higher than comparable days.

The U.K. economy has experienced a substantial increase in foreign visitors, and music tourism, sports tourism, and entertainment events have been identified as significant contributors to this growth. As the second-largest services exporter in the U.K., this sector is also the fastest-growing export earner, showcasing the country's hospitality and tourism industry.

by April Roach

Markets