A turbulent week in markets could be triggered by Russia's actions towards Ukraine and concerns about Fed rate hikes.

• In the upcoming week, the market's focus will be on the tensions between Russia and Ukraine, while analysts will closely monitor technical levels for stocks amidst the volatility.
• The Federal Reserve closely monitors Friday's personal consumption expenditures inflation data, which is a crucial economic report during a busy week.
• The last earnings season rush includes reports from retailers such as Home Depot and Macy's, as well as energy companies like Occidental Petroleum and Coterra Energy.

Investors are closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine and making adjustments to their portfolios in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate hikes, which may cause another week of volatility in the stock market.

In the past week, the stock market experienced volatility, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all experiencing declines. The worst-performing sectors were energy, communications services, and financials.

In the upcoming four-day week, several Fed speakers, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Fed Governor Christopher Waller, are scheduled to appear. Additionally, earnings reports from retailers and other companies are expected, as well as economic data on durable goods, consumer spending, and inflation.

Next week, the market's biggest issue could be technical, according to Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at The Leuthold Group.

The market remained volatile due to the ongoing tension between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia's threat to invade and its troop buildup on the border.

What is the end game for Russia? Will it continue indefinitely, or will there be a total pullout? According to Paulsen, the only thing that could bring about a change is if they go in or there's a total pullout.

Before Russia's threat against Ukraine, it seemed that stocks were poised to rise further. Recently, the S&P 500 attempted to surpass 4,600, reaching a low of 4,222 on January 24.

Despite the Fed's actions and inflation, the market remained stable. However, Russia's actions caused it to decline. Now, if we break below a certain point, we must also break that low, as stated by Paulsen.

On Friday, Russia readied for additional exercises near Ukraine's border as the U.S. persisted in advocating for a diplomatic resolution. Following the stock market's conclusion, President Biden stated that he believes Russia is poised to launch an attack in the near future.

"As an investor, you're left wondering if we're going down to test that low, but the next six months should be good," said Paulsen.

While chart analysis does not assure the market's trajectory, it is a popular approach among investors due to the numerous reactions to key technical levels. These levels serve as a guide when fundamental information is unclear.

Watching the charts

T3Live.com's chief strategic officer, Scott Redler, closely monitors the short-term technicals and believes there is a high probability that the S&P 500 will revisit its January low in a retest. As of Friday, the S&P 500 stood at 4,348.

Redler stated that the narrative for this year is inflation and the Fed removing accommodation. He added that even if the Russian threat fades, the market could still face volatility as the Fed moves to raise interest rates starting in March.

The four to seven rate hikes this year and the runoff of the balance sheet are not a solution, as the market has responded negatively to Fed tightening in the past," he said. "In 2018, the S&P fell 20% and the Nasdaq fell 24%. Therefore, why wouldn't the S&P test the 4,222 area?

Technical analysts, including Redler, are monitoring a bearish pattern on the S&P 500 chart that suggests the index may form a "head-and-shoulders" pattern, potentially leading to increased volatility.

The market has been building the right shoulder as per a distribution pattern over the past month, according to Redler. He stated that the neckline on the chart would indicate the completion of this pattern.

If the neckline breaks, the broad-market index could fall to 3,900, he said.

Redler is also monitoring the stock charts of Big Tech companies. "Apple has been maintaining a steady course, neither performing exceptionally well nor experiencing a significant decline," he stated. "If Apple breaks the 166-ish range, it could contribute to a faster drop in the S&P 500," he added. "Apple has been attempting to maintain the $165 to $170 range, which has kept it relatively stable."

Microsoft shares are also lagging behind. According to the expert, for the bears to truly roar, they must break both Apple and Microsoft, in addition to the high-growth names.

Flight to safety

In the bond market, investors have been weighing the possibility of Federal Reserve rate hikes against concerns about a Russian invasion of Ukraine. The 10-year yield was at 1.93% on Friday. Yields move inversely with price. Investors have been looking to the 10-year as a safe haven against possible weekend developments in Ukraine.

In the futures market, expectations for a half-point rate increase faded as the week wore on, with the market pricing in just about a quarter-point hike Friday. A week earlier, the market was anxious about the possibility the Fed would be more aggressive with interest rate hikes, starting with a possible 50-basis-point hike in March.

On CNBC's "Squawk Box," St. Louis Fed President James Bullard reiterated his expectation for a larger rate hike. However, the minutes from the Fed's last meeting, released Wednesday, were less hawkish than anticipated, with no indication that the Federal Open Market Committee members supported a bigger rate hike.

Ben Jeffery, rates strategist at BMO Capital Markets, stated that based on the minutes and the opinions of everyone except for Bullard, it appears that no one is in favor of a 50-basis point hike.

In the upcoming week, several crucial economic reports will be released, including durable goods and consumer sentiment on Friday.

The Federal Reserve closely monitors the inflation reading in the report that will be released on Friday, which will be a key focus for investors.

John Briggs of NatWest Markets stated that they have a good guide that is likely to exceed expectations. This guide is likely to be the highlight of the week, according to the data.

Boiling oil

The tense situation with Moscow has caused oil prices to increase due to fears that any retaliatory sanctions from the U.S. could limit Russian oil on the market. However, West Texas Intermediate futures dropped from $95 per barrel to about $91 by Friday.

On Friday, the market responded strongly to news that the U.S. and Iran were close to reaching a nuclear agreement. If the agreement is reached, Iran will be able to sell its oil to the global market.

According to John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital, there is a lot of positive commentary about the situation. It appears that there is a conclusion in the market. This is a marriage of convenience for all parties involved. The market needs the barrels, the Biden administration needs the barrels, and the Iranians need the money.

Kilduff stated that traders are closely monitoring the upcoming earnings reports of oil companies, particularly those of ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Royal Dutch Shell, which are expected to be the most significant.

As U.S. drilling rig counts rise, investors are closely monitoring whether companies will announce plans to increase drilling activities.

"Their capital expenditure plans are a topic of discussion," he stated.

Week ahead calendar

Monday

Presidents’ Day holiday

Markets closed

11:15 a.m. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman

Tuesday

Toll Brothers, Public Storage, Agilent, Palo Alto Networks, Texas Roadhouse, TrueCar, Anglogold Ashanti, KBR, Sealy, Fluor, Expeditors International, Norsk Hydro, HSBC are the top-performing companies in their respective industries.

9:00 a.m. S&P/Case-Shiller home prices

9:00 a.m. FHFA home prices

9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI

9:45 a.m. Services PMI

10:00 a.m. Consumer confidence

3:00 p.m. Dallas Fed Interim President Meredith Black

3:30 p.m. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

Wednesday

Brink's, Travel + Leisure, Molson Coors Brewing, Sleep Number, IMAX, Tupperware, TJX Cos, Allbirds, Bath & Body Works, Petrobras, Iamgold, Extra Space Storage, Sturm Roger, Chesapeake, Coterra.

Thursday

Daimler, AXA, WPP, Iron Mountain, Gannett, SeaWorld, Coinbase, Morningstar, Dell Technologies, Ambac Financial, Cushman & Wakefield, Allscripts Healthcare, Keurig Dr. Pepper, NetEase, Planet Fitness, Southwestern Energy, Steve Madden, Wayfair, American Tower, and others are among the companies that have reported earnings.

8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims

8:30 a.m. Q4 Real GDP 2nd reading

9:00 a.m. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin

10:00 a.m. New home sales

11:00 a.m. San Francisco Fed’s Daly

11:10 a.m. Atlanta Fed’s Bostic

12:00 a.m. Richmond Fed’s Barkin

12:00 p.m. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester

3:30 p.m. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

8:00 p.m. Fed Governor Christopher Waller

Friday

Earnings: Canadian Imperial Bank, Liberty Broadband, Liberty Media,

8:30 a.m. Durable goods

8:30 a.m. Personal income/spending

8:30 a.m. PCE deflator

10:00 a.m. Pending home sales

10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment

Saturday

Earnings: