A fund manager believes that the perception of U.S. recession risks is incorrect, as oil, gold, and Treasurys are diverging.

• Hedge fund manager David Neuhauser believes that markets are perplexed about the possibility of a recession occurring in the U.S., and that "somebody has got it wrong."
• Despite rising recessionary fears due to falling oil prices and rising gold prices, 10-year Treasury yields increased on Friday on the basis of expectations of a soft landing.
• The CIO of Livermore Partners stated: "It appears that someone has misunderstood the situation, and it's difficult to determine who is incorrect at this point."

Hedge fund manager David Neuhauser believes that markets are perplexed about the likelihood of a U.S. recession, and that someone must have made a mistake.

On Monday, the CIO of Livermore Partners stated to CNBC that many investors are hoping for a "Goldilocks" scenario, where the economy neither grows too rapidly nor shrinks too significantly.

According to the speaker, it was believed that the Fed would cut rates because a soft landing was approaching. It seems that way, based on the surface.

The latest jobs data and inflation figures have increased optimism that a recession can be prevented in the U.S. In November, nonfarm payrolls exceeded expectations, and October's inflation figures surpassed projections, with consumer prices remaining unchanged from the previous month and increasing by 3.2% year-over-year.

Neuhauser stated, "While appearing fine on the outside, there are many cracks hidden beneath the surface."

He pointed out the weaknesses in the U.S. consumer and global economy, specifically China, and the persistent high inflation rates in several countries.

He said, "It seems like the U.S. is the best place to be, but I wonder if the future path will see things start to decline or if we'll glide down and corporate earnings will be protected from the storm."

People believe that they don't understand today, but that's the narrative.

According to Neuhauser, Livermore Partners' investments in oil and gas markets are presenting a different economic outlook compared to the overall market trends.

According to the expert, looking at the oil market and the gold market indicates a recession is imminent. However, analyzing the tea leaves, economists predict a soft landing for the U.S. economy. The 10-year Treasury yield also supports this prediction.

In September, oil prices were trading around $97 per barrel, but by early Monday in February, they had fallen over 20% to around $75.67 per barrel.

From their early October lows of approximately $1,810 per ounce, gold has soared to around $1,991 an ounce on Monday, despite reaching a record high of over $2,100 per ounce last week.

As oil prices decline and gold prices rise, recessionary fears are increasing. Despite strong jobs data, 10-year Treasury yields jumped on Friday, with the yield hovering around 4.254% early Monday.

"It's difficult to determine who has it wrong, but I am waiting to see what the right course of action is," Neuhauser stated.