A CNBC survey shows that the presidential election is a close call, with Trump leading Harris by a significant margin on the economy.

• According to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, Vice President Kamala Harris trails former President Donald Trump by 2%, within the poll's 3.1% margin of error.
• If Trump wins by a 42% to 24% margin, voters believe they will be financially better off.
• A nationwide survey with a sample size of 1,000 voters was conducted from Oct. 15-19.

Despite less than two weeks remaining before the election, the CNBC All-America Economic Survey reveals that the presidential race remains a statistical tie both nationally and in battleground states, with some shifts among key groups since the August survey.

According to a recent poll, nationally, former President Donald Trump has a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, with a 48%-46% advantage, within a 3.1% margin of error. In the seven battleground states, Trump leads 48% to 47%, with a 4% margin of error for that portion of the poll.

A survey was conducted from Oct. 15-19 with a total sample of 1,000 voters nationwide, including 586 from battleground states.

Inflation, the economy, and the needs of the middle class are the most important concerns for voters both nationally and in battlegrounds. Trump holds commanding leads among voters who prioritize these issues. By a 42% to 24% margin, voters say they will be better off financially if Trump wins, with 29% saying their financial position wouldn't change no matter who is elected. Voters who say inflation, the cost of living, and the economy overall are the top issues favor Trump by 13 points. Inflation has remained the top issue throughout the election cycle.

Despite the data indicating that inflation has theoretically been slowing down, its importance in people's minds has increased over the past three quarters, rather than decreased, according to Jay Campbell, partner at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster for the survey.

Trump has a 35-point advantage among voters most concerned about immigration and a 19-point edge on the issue of crime and safety, according to the survey.

Harris holds a significant lead on several second-tier issues, including abortion, protecting democracy, healthcare, and climate change.

Trump favorability improves

Will the combined support on smaller issues be sufficient to offset Harris's weaknesses on major economic issues? The two candidates are statistically even in terms of their ability to bring positive change to the country.

The race is close due to issues of character, but Harris has a 13-point lead in mental and physical health, and leads Trump by 10 points in honesty and trustworthiness. Despite this, both numbers show improvement for Trump compared to a September NBC news poll.

Trump's net favorability rating has improved from -13 to -6 nationally, while views on Harris are only slightly less negative at -10 compared to -8 in August. Despite losing some post-convention gains, Harris still fares better in battleground states with a -5 net favorability rating, which is equal to Trump's.

The survey reveals that the American electorate is divided along racial, gender, economic, and educational lines, with some underlying movement. The gender gap remains the most significant split, with Trump having a net +17 support among men and Vice President Harris having a +12 support among women. Harris has a large 27-point lead among voters of color, but she lost 10 points compared to August. She has a 38-point lead among voters of color in battleground states. Compared to August, Trump improved his numbers among less-educated and lower-income voters, while Harris is doing better with middle-class and wealthier voters.

"According to Micah Roberts, partner with Public Opinion Strategies, Trump's advantage in the polls is due to his stronger performance among younger men, while Harris's advantage is weaker among this demographic."

Despite having an 8-point advantage among women over 50 nationally, Harris is tied with Trump in the battleground states.

Inflation still an issue

Despite a sharp decline in the official measured rate of inflation, a CNBC survey reveals that Americans are not feeling the benefits. Three-quarters of the public believe prices are still rising, with 45% saying they are increasing at a faster rate than before. Only 16% say prices have leveled off, and just 6% see them declining. Additionally, only 7% believe their incomes are increasing faster than inflation, while 27% say they are staying even with inflation and 63% say they are losing ground. On a positive note, 26% say the economy is excellent or good, with 73% answering either fair or poor, a modest improvement from August.

In more than 3 years, the highest percentage of the public, 37%, believes the economy will improve in the next year, which is typically an increase that occurs around election time and may be linked more to American's views on the election outcome than their views on the economy.

The full survey results can be viewed here.