The tungsten industry is affected by China's restrictions on antimony exports.

• Beijing's recent export controls on critical minerals have raised concerns among industry leaders that China may use its global supply chain power in unprecedented ways.
• "Three months ago, it was inconceivable that anyone would have accomplished this. It's quite confrontational in that respect," said Lewis Black, CEO of Canada-based Almonty Industries.
• If not in the next month or two, China will impose export controls on tungsten by the end of the year, according to Christopher Ecclestone, principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company.

Beijing's recent export controls have caused unease among insiders of the critical minerals industry, with some fearing that Beijing may use its global supply chain dominance in unconventional ways.

The Ministry of Commerce in China declared on Thursday that antimony export controls will commence on September 15th. This element is utilized in various applications such as bullet production, nuclear weapons manufacturing, and lead-acid batteries. Additionally, antimony can enhance other metals.

"Three months ago, it was inconceivable that anyone would have predicted they would do this. It's quite confrontational in that sense," said Lewis Black, CEO of Almonty Industries in a phone interview. The company has announced it will spend at least $125 million to reopen a tungsten mine in South Korea later this year.

Tungsten is almost as hard as a diamond and is utilized in weapons, semiconductors, and industrial cutting machines. Like tungsten, antimony is also on the U.S. critical minerals list and is located close to tungsten on the periodic table.

Beijing, the world's largest graphite producer, has announced export controls for the crucial battery material, causing concern among foreign countries about its dominance.

"My customers are rattled because they don't have a plan B for the move I can't explain, which is known to China, who has been aware of the lack of a plan for 30 years," he stated.

"Equilibrium has always existed because they were never weaponized, as they could cause an escalation effect," he stated.

In 2023, China accounted for 48% of global antimony mine production, while the U.S. did not mine any marketable antimony, according to the U.S. Geological Survey's latest annual report. Additionally, the U.S. has not commercially mined tungsten since 2015, and China dominates global tungsten supply, the report stated.

Tony Adock, executive chair of Tungsten Metals Group, stated in a phone interview that he believes the start of export restrictions on rare earths and minerals is imminent. He expressed skepticism that China would impose such restrictions on antimony.

Adock stated that the Chinese Commerce Ministry's statement regarding tungsten and other rare earths may not occur, as tungsten is the most economically significant.

The Ministry of Commerce in China did not provide a comment when asked.

Tungsten's military importance

Beijing has imposed export controls on germanium and gallium, two metals used in chipmaking, after the U.S. attempted to limit China's access to high-end semiconductors.

Tungsten, like antimony, is utilized in defense production, although it is also employed in the production of semiconductors.

According to Christopher Ecclestone, principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company, tungsten, despite its declining production in China, is far more vital in military applications than antimony.

If not in the next month or two, China will impose export controls on tungsten by the end of the year.

"In a scenario where there is a rush to acquire metals in anticipation of a potential conflict, the South China Sea or Taiwan are often discussed, with the aim of obtaining as much tungsten as possible. However, it is also important to ensure that the other party has the least amount of tungsten possible."

The U.S. is already keen to reduce its reliance on China for tungsten.

The REEShore Act, enacted in 2022, prohibits the use of Chinese tungsten in military equipment starting in 2026.

In June, the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party established a new working group focused on the U.S. critical minerals policy.

According to Ecclestone, the price for buying antimony from Rotterdam was significantly higher than the price for delivery from Shanghai last week, despite antimony prices continuing to rise even after pandemic-related shipping disruptions ended.

Ecclestone, founder of a mining strategy firm in 2003, stated that there is a suspicion that the Pentagon has been replenishing its stockpiles of specific metals, particularly antimony, which is crucial for the production of munitions.

The Department of Defense in the United States did not provide a comment promptly when asked.

According to Markus Herrmann Chen, co-founder and managing director of China Macro Group, China is taking action in response to what it sees as a violation of its national interests.

The Third Plenum meeting of policymakers in July was attended by him, who highlighted that China's new policy goal was to better coordinate the entire minerals value chain. This likely reflects the growing importance of 'strategic mineral resources' for both business and geoeconomic interests.

Emerging alternatives

Companies worldwide are exploring a new chance as China focuses on safeguarding its national security.

Energy Fuels, a Colorado-based company, has been the largest supplier of uranium oxide to the U.S. for several years, supporting domestic nuclear energy production. Mark Chalmers, president and CEO of Energy Fuels, announced that the company is now creating a U.S. rare earths product line.

Our 40-year experience in working with naturally radioactive materials gives us a competitive edge in replicating China's success in separating multiple rare earth elements from low-cost and abundant monazite, as Chalmers stated, referring to the mineral from which the desired metals can be extracted.

Whether China will implement a blanket export control remains uncertain.

"Black stated that they do not want to admit that this could lead to an escalation, but he believes that China also does not want this to happen. It is crucial to avoid creating another bogey man at the start of a U.S. election. Let's wait a week to determine if this is a policy or not."