Since Trump's first term, the number of Chinese investments in the U.S. has significantly decreased and it is unlikely to increase.

• Analysts predicted that Chinese companies are unlikely to increase their investments in the U.S. under the incoming Trump administration.
• According to economist Rafiq Dossani of the U.S.-based think tank RAND, Trump's thoughts are likely not on incentivizing Chinese companies to invest in the U.S.
• The number of Chinese investment deals in the U.S. has significantly decreased since the start of Trump's presidency, according to recent data from the American Enterprise Institute.

Since the start of Donald Trump's presidency, Chinese investments in the U.S. have decreased significantly. This trend is predicted to continue even with Trump's return to the White House, according to analysts.

After his inauguration on Monday, Trump announced plans to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, further intensifying the U.S.'s stance towards Beijing.

According to economist Rafiq Dossani of the U.S.-based think tank RAND, Trump's thoughts are likely not on incentivizing Chinese companies to invest in the U.S.

""The rhetoric is to keep China out of the U.S. while allowing their products to enter, which are low-end, but other than that, there's a strict 'don't let them come in' stance," he stated in a recent interview."

In recent weeks, Damac, an Emirati property giant, has committed $20 billion to construct data centers in the U.S., while SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son has pledged $100 billion for artificial intelligence development in the U.S. over the course of Trump's presidency.

The flow of Chinese investment in the U.S. has significantly decreased, according to the latest data from the American Enterprise Institute. In the first six months of 2024, only $860 million was invested, compared to $1.66 billion in 2023. This represents a sharp decline from the $46.86 billion invested in 2017, during Trump's first term.

Chinese companies had made high-profile U.S. acquisitions, including the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York. However, regulators on both sides have put a stop to it.

Since Beijing tightened control over capital outflows in 2017 and the US implemented regulatory policies excluding certain sectors, Chinese investment in the US has significantly decreased, according to Danielle Goh, senior research analyst at Rhodium Group.

In the foreseeable future, she doesn't anticipate that Chinese investments in the U.S. will reach the peak levels seen during the 2016 to 2017 period. Goh stated that instead of acquisitions, Chinese companies are increasingly opting for small joint ventures with U.S. companies or greenfield investments, where businesses are established from scratch.

In June 2024, EVE Energy, a Chinese battery manufacturing company, announced a joint venture with U.S. engine company Cummins' Accelera division, Daimler Truck, and PACCAR to build a battery factory in Mississippi. The factory, which will begin production in 2027, will create more than 2,000 jobs.

The U.S.-China Chamber of Commerce has primarily assisted Chinese e-commerce companies in establishing local offices instead of manufacturing businesses, according to Siva Yam, the nonprofit's president, since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Investments are becoming smaller these days, making them less noticeable to regulators in both the U.S. and China. However, there is still uncertainty about whether Chinese companies can use these investments to mitigate the effects of tariffs.

Over 20 U.S. states have recently enacted or updated rules on land purchases by Chinese citizens and companies, indicating growing caution towards Chinese investment.

In December, Chinese hackers targeted a government office that reviews foreign investment in the US, according to CNN, citing US officials. This was part of a broader attack on the Treasury Department, which did not respond to a CNBC request for comment.

Deal-making strategy?

Trump hinted at the possibility of employing tariffs as a means to pressure Chinese investment in the U.S.

In his acceptance speech for the Republican nomination, he pledged to restore auto jobs in the country by implementing effective tax policies, tariffs, and incentives, and to prevent the construction of large-scale auto manufacturing plants in Mexico, China, or other countries.

To generate massive jobs and wealth for our country, the product will be built in America, and exclusively in America, as stated by him, according to an NBC News transcript.

In November, CATL, a prominent Chinese battery manufacturer, stated that it would establish a U.S. plant if President Trump permitted it to do so. However, the company did not respond to a request for comment.

In December, the Center for American Progress highlighted that Trump cancelled restrictions on Chinese telecommunications company ZTE, only days after the Chinese government and banks invested $1 billion in a Trump Organization-affiliated theme park in Indonesia during his first term.

The ZTE deal and opportunities for Chinese companies to invest in the U.S. were not immediately addressed by the Trump transition team when requested for comment.

Derek Scissors, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, stated that even if Trump encouraged more Chinese investment or forced it through tariffs, large investments are long-term processes that won't occur quickly.

Then there's the unpredictability of the president-elect's policies.

Trump stated that the U.S. being open to Chinese companies in 2025 does not assure a certainty for 2029.