JPMorgan economist predicts that China's housing market crash is not yet over.

JPMorgan economist predicts that China's housing market crash is not yet over.
JPMorgan economist predicts that China's housing market crash is not yet over.
  • The JPMorgan economist believes that China's housing market will remain soft despite government stimulus and support measures, as they have not been "satisfactory" in boosting the sector.
  • JPMorgan's chief China economist, Haibin Zhu, stated on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" that the housing market crash in China is not yet over and home prices will not stabilize until at least 2025.
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The JPMorgan economist believes that China's housing market will remain soft despite government stimulus and support measures, as they have not been "satisfactory" in boosting the sector.

JPMorgan's chief China economist, Haibin Zhu, stated on CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" Monday that the housing market crash in China is not yet over, and home prices will not stabilize until at least 2025.

New home sales in 100 Chinese cities saw a slight increase of 0.11% in price from July, a decrease from the 0.13% growth recorded in June, according to data from China Index Academy. Meanwhile, resale home prices fell by 0.71% compared to the previous month, as reported.

The average prices of both new and resale houses decreased by 1.76% and 6.89%, respectively, from the previous year, indicating that the country's housing market is still in crisis.

On Saturday, Bloomberg reported that China is considering a plan to reduce homeowner borrowing costs by permitting refinancing on up to $5.4 trillion in mortgages.

There are doubts among analysts about the effectiveness of the proposed measure in boosting homebuyer sentiment and overall consumption.

Winnie Wu, chief China equity strategist at BofA Securities, stated that some individuals believe lower mortgage rates will increase consumption, but this perspective is only one aspect of the issue. According to Wu, banks would reduce deposit rates to safeguard their margins and maintain financial stability. This action would ultimately decrease interest income on household savings.

According to JPMorgan's Zhu, the mortgage refinancing measure would not significantly increase new home demand.

"Although the mortgage refinancing policy may be implemented, it does not revive the housing market, as it is not related to new home demand and primarily benefits existing homeowners, he stated."

"BofA Securities' Wu stated that a rate cut is not the optimal solution, as it will not significantly improve banks' profit margins. Instead, the government should take action to stimulate economic growth and create a positive feedback loop rather than perpetuating a downward spiral."

by Anniek Bao

China Economy