What a potential second Trump administration could mean for your finances.

What a potential second Trump administration could mean for your finances.
What a potential second Trump administration could mean for your finances.
  • At the end of this year, tax rates that were reduced in 2017 will expire.
  • The Affordable Care Act's subsidies for lowering the cost of health insurance will expire at the end of 2025.
Tackling Taxes

During his campaign, President Trump pledged to deliver lower taxes, reduced costs, and a robust economy in his second term.

On Day One of his second term, Trump issued several executive orders, including a regulatory freeze and directives to assess trade relationships with Canada, China, and Mexico, in an attempt to advance some of his goals. However, fulfilling these and other promises will require additional actions and, in many instances, the support of Congress.

Here are five ways a second Trump administration could impact your finances.

The White House did not immediately respond to requests from CNBC for comment.

1.Tariffs could send prices higher

Trump's use of tariffs has sparked a range of opinions on their potential effects on prices. Some argue that tariffs are paid by businesses and some of the cost is passed on to consumers.

On Day One of his presidency, Trump issued an order to evaluate trade relationships and set an April 30 deadline for the review.

According to Beacon Policy Advisors, Trump's decision not to announce new tariffs on his first day in office indicates an ongoing internal debate over the implementation of duties, rather than a plan to significantly scale back or withdraw his campaign promises to impose new duties on foreign goods.

Last week, during his confirmation hearing, Trump's Treasury secretary nominee Scott Bessent advised lawmakers to consider tariffs in three ways: as a solution to unjust trade practices, a source of revenue, and a bargaining tool. He countered Democrats' assertion that tariffs would result in higher prices for consumers.

Bessent stated that China, in an attempt to overcome their economic downturn, will persist in lowering prices to preserve market share.

2. Tax rates and deductions may change

If Congress does not act, over 60% of taxpayers will face higher taxes in 2026 due to the expiration of provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, including lower tax brackets.

Amid concerns over the federal debt, extending provisions is a challenging task. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the federal budget deficit is projected to increase to $1.9 trillion this year, adding to the $36.2 trillion in outstanding debt.

The estimated cost of TCJA provisions over the next 10 years is $4 trillion dollars, according to a Penn Wharton budget model. Trump's promise to eliminate taxes on tips and Social Security would significantly increase the price tag. This puts a lot of room for negotiation as lawmakers discuss spending and taxes this year.

At the Financial Advisor Summit in December, Erica York, a senior economist and research director at the Tax Foundation, stated that fiscal pressures would have a greater impact on the debate than they did previously.

One of the significant battles that experts predict will be over the state and local tax deduction, commonly known as SALT. Currently, those deductions are capped at $10,000 under law. High-tax states like California, New York, and New Jersey all have top tax rates above 10%, so any changes there would be significant for many taxpayers who itemize deductions. The cap on SALT deductions freed up an estimated $100 billion a year in the federal budget, helping to offset other cuts.

The TCJA doubled the maximum child tax credit from $1,000 to $2,000. On the campaign trail, Vice President JD Vance proposed increasing it to $5,000. Trump has expressed support for the credit but has not specified an amount. Both proposals are expensive in terms of the budget.

3. Health care costs may increase

In order to fulfill his campaign pledge to safeguard Social Security and Medicare, Trump's administration is exploring the possibility of reducing funding for other healthcare programs. According to a report by Politico, House Republican lawmakers have identified $2.3 trillion in cuts to Medicaid.

The Affordable Care Act's subsidies, which help lower the cost of health insurance, are at risk of expiration if Congress does not extend them. Without an extension, the subsidies will expire by the end of 2025, potentially causing significant premium increases for some individuals. Due to policy changes under the budget reconciliation process, some analysts predict that the subsidies will run out.

Kim Monk, a partner at Capital Alpha Partners, stated that it's unfortunate that there are no compromises that could be made to better target subsidies in exchange for extending them and stabilizing the market.

4. Credit card rates could move lower

If Trump follows through with his plan to cap credit card interest rates at 10%, individuals with credit card balances could see relief. However, Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., is drafting legislation that could make it more difficult for people to obtain credit if the interest rate cap is implemented.

Although analysts believe a cap is unlikely, the focus on the issue has made it a priority to monitor.

Jaret Seiberg, a financial policy analyst at TD Cowen, stated that there is a possibility that Trump could interfere with credit card policy, even if it is not an extreme interest rate cap.

5. Markets may be more volatile

Experts predict that markets could be volatile due to the numerous policy changes and uncertainty about their implementation.

Dan Casey, an investment advisor at Bridgeriver Advisors in Bloomfield Hills, Michigan, stated that the first year here, 2025, will be extremely unpredictable.

Understanding one's personal financial situation is crucial to avoid selling during market downturns.

"Knowing your numbers and having money in the market is crucial," Casey stated.

To achieve long-term goals like retirement, he advised, "tighten your lips and refrain from revealing your plans for a while, as it may become unpleasant."

by Stephanie Dhue

Investing