Top financial advisors are sharing their insights on the market impact of the U.S. presidential election with investors.
- As Election Day nears, investors may worry how the markets may react.
- Here's what top financial advisors say they are telling clients now.
The U.S. presidential election outcome may impact the performance of many investors' investments.
But history tells another story.
A recent evaluation by Morningstar of the S&P 500's performance from Nov. 1 during the past 25 U.S. presidential elections revealed a "mixed bag" of results.
In 10 out of 13 elections where Democrats won, forward one-year returns were positive, while in nine out of 12 contests where Republicans won, the firm found positive returns.
In 11 out of 12 terms, Democrats had positive four-year returns, while Republicans had positive returns in nine out of 12.
Mark Motley, portfolio manager at Foster & Motley in Cincinnati, which is No. 34 on the 2024 CNBC Financial Advisor 100 list, stated that markets have not historically been significantly impacted by presidential elections as most people believe.
Since President Jimmy Carter, all presidents have experienced healthy stock market returns for the full four- or eight-years, except for President George W. Bush due to the Great Recession, according to Motley's recent market update.
It is not guaranteed that future results will be the same as past market performance.
Election predictions and the market
According to Joseph Veranth, chief investment officer at Dana Investment Advisors in Waukesha, Wisconsin, which ranked No. 4 on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list, predicting market movements based on the presidency or Congress control is challenging.
Despite the challenges, there is hope for the future. The U.S. economy is showing signs of improvement, with inflation decreasing and growth and earnings remaining strong.
Veranth stated that all of those factors are positive for the market's future outlook.
The presidential election could cause temporary fluctuations, especially if a clear victor is not immediately determined.
Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, states that the markets have generally risen over time, regardless of which political party has held power.
Adam stated that a president's long-term policies have not been successful in accurately predicting which industries will thrive.
During Trump's presidency, despite deregulation, record production, and higher oil prices, the energy sector experienced a 8.4% decline, according to Adam's research.
Adam stated that energy was the poorest-performing sector in the four years.
Despite an emphasis on renewables and sustainability, energy outperformed during Biden's presidency — up 24.4% as of Sept. 25.
The success of the presidential candidates' plans will depend on the legislative branch, according to Brad Houle, principal and head of fixed income at Ferguson Wellman Capital Management in Portland, Oregon, which ranks 10th on the 2024 CNBC FA 100 list.
Houle advised against making any changes during election month.
Factors such as economic performance, stock market earnings, and investor demand will determine long-term stock market returns, according to him.
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