This year's July 4th barbecue could be more expensive.

• The average cost of hosting a traditional Independence Day barbecue for 10 people this year is $71.22, which is a 5% increase from 2023 and a 30% increase from 2019, according to an American Farm Bureau Federation estimate.
• The prices of beef and lemonade have increased significantly, while the prices of chicken breast and potato salad have decreased.
• Overall grocery inflation has fallen to its rough pre-pandemic level.

This year, the cost of traditional barbecue staples for Americans celebrating the Fourth of July on their grills is likely to increase.

Due to inflationary pressures in the U.S. economy and supply shocks related to specific foods like beef and lemons, agricultural economists have noted a significant increase in food prices.

An American Farm Bureau Federation estimate shows that the average cookout for 10 people will cost $71.22 this year, which is a 5% increase from 2023 and a 30% increase from five years ago.

Prices for ground beef, chicken breast, pork chops, cheese, hamburger buns, homemade potato salad, potato chips, chocolate chip cookies, ice cream, strawberries, pork and beans, and lemonade were analyzed by the group.

• 2 pounds of ground beef, $12.77 (+11% vs. 2023)
• 2 pounds of chicken breasts, $7.83 (-4%)
• 3 pounds of pork chops, $15.49 (+8%)
• 1 pound of cheese, $3.57 (+1%)
• 1 package of hamburger buns, $2.41 (+7%)
• 2½ pounds of homemade potato salad, $3.32 (-4%)
• 32 ounces of pork and beans, $2.49 (+2%)
• 16 ounces of potato chips, $4.90 (+8%)
• 13-ounce package of chocolate chip cookies, $3.99 (+2%)
• ½ gallon of ice cream, $5.65 (+7%)
• 2 pints of strawberries, $4.61 (+1%)
• 2½ quarts of lemonade, $4.19 (+12%)

Overall food inflation has fallen dramatically, though.

After reaching a high of 13.5% in August 2022, grocery prices are increasing at a rate of 1% per year, which is their pre-pandemic pace.

Agricultural economists at Wells Fargo predict that food inflation is no longer a significant concern, as it is now in the past.

According to Courtney Schmidt, a sector manager at Wells Fargo's Agri-Food Institute and report co-author, food prices are not expected to decrease at the grocery store, but there won't be as significant price increases as seen in the past year or two.

The Farm Bureau reported that prices for certain barbecue items, such as chicken breast and potatoes, have decreased, according to consumers.

Why beef and lemon prices are rising

According to Bernt Nelson, an economist from the Farm Bureau, the biggest price increases for an Independence Day barbecue will be seen in ground beef and lemonade.

According to the group's analysis, the average cost of two pounds of ground beef increased by 11% from 2023 to $12.77.

Due to low beef supply, the overall cattle inventory is the smallest it has been in 73 years, and the amount of red meat in cold storage is at its lowest in more than two decades, according to the Farm Bureau.

"In 2022, we experienced a severe drought that led to a reduction in supply, as Schmidt stated. Rebuilding the herd takes time due to the long life cycle of cattle."

Selling a home in the U.S. typically costs $55,000. Rents are increasing and decreasing at a rapid pace in the country. Americans are spending a significant amount of money on travel and entertainment.

According to a Wells Fargo analysis, the average cost of ingredients for a quarter-pound hamburger with cheese, tomato, and lettuce at home is $2.16.

An average 2½ quarts of lemonade now costs $4.19, which is a 12% increase in price.

In late 2023, a citrus greening disease outbreak in California, the largest lemon producer in the U.S., caused a decline in supply, according to the Farm Bureau. The U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts that lemon production will decrease by 16% in 2024.

The Farm Bureau reported that average lemon prices have increased by 13% compared to the previous year, while sugar prices have also risen by 11%, partly due to decreased global production.

Nelson stated that overall inflation has led to higher prices for various foods, including chips, burger buns, and many others.

Why chicken and potato prices are down

The average cost of a two-pound pack of chicken breast is $7.83, down 4% from 2023 and 13% from a record high in 2022, according to a Farm Bureau analysis. Despite a historic and deadly outbreak of bird flu in 2022, chicken supplies have rebounded, as per USDA data.

According to the Farm Bureau, 50% of the total cost of an Independence Day barbecue comes from meat, including ground beef, pork chops, and chicken breast.

In 2023, potato salad will be less expensive due to a decrease in the cost of its main ingredient. The price of two pounds of potatoes has decreased by 17%, from $1.53 to $1.26, according to the Farm Bureau. The recovery of crop production from weather-related shortfalls has contributed to the lower prices, the Farm Bureau stated.

How to save money

According to the consumer price index, the increase in prices for dining out was more than double that of groceries in the past year.

According to Wells Fargo, the average cost of a quarter-pound burger at quick-service restaurants is $6.95, which is three times the cost of preparing one burger at home. By cooking at home for a party of 10, hosts can save $47.90.

Schmidt stated that this year would be ideal for barbecuing burgers at home.

Quick-service restaurants are providing value options for diners who prefer dining out, she stated.

The increase in the cost of aluminum has resulted in higher prices for 12-ounce drink cans, according to Schmidt. She advised choosing a two-liter shareable bottle instead of individual aluminum cans. For instance, the price of a 12 oz. can of soda has risen by 4.8% over the past year, while the price of a two-liter bottle has decreased by 6.5%.

To save money, consumers should research weekly ads for Fourth of July deals at grocery stores.