The U.S.'s space partnerships with Russia are facing their 'greatest challenge' due to the Ukraine invasion, according to an executive.

• The partnership between the United States and Russia through the International Space Station is at risk due to the invasion of Ukraine.
• Jeff Manber, president of Voyager Space, stated that despite the ISS program's successful journey, the current challenge is the greatest.
• On Thursday, President Biden stated that the sanctions imposed on Russia would negatively affect its aerospace sector, particularly its space program.

The International Space Station, a longstanding partnership between the US and Russian space agencies, is at risk of being terminated due to the invasion of Ukraine.

Jeff Manber, president of Voyager Space, stated that despite the ISS program's successful journey, the current challenge is the greatest.

Manber, who has extensive experience in the two countries' space dealings, believes that the partnership is not immediately in danger. However, he noted that Roscosmos has not renewed its role beyond 2024, while the U.S. is preparing to extend operations to 2030.

"The challenge of renewal beyond 2024 has become more daunting," Manber stated.

NASA is still collaborating with its international partners, including Roscosmos, to ensure the safe operation of the International Space Station. Currently, there are seven individuals on board, consisting of five American and one German astronauts, and two Russian cosmonauts.

On Thursday afternoon, President Biden declared extensive economic sanctions against Russia, targeting their aerospace industry, including their space program. Despite not mentioning the ISS partnership in his speech, NASA stated that the new export control measures would still permit U.S.-Russia civil space cooperation.

NASA announced that no changes are planned to their support for ongoing in orbit and ground station operations.

Partnerships

The International Space Station (ISS) consists of two sections: the United States Orbital Segment and the Russian Orbital Segment. Both the U.S. and Russia maintain a continuous presence of astronauts and cosmonauts in the research laboratory, with each nation's segment dependent on the other for various systems, including life support and thrusters that keep the ISS in orbit.

The International Space Station's continuation would be a significant technical challenge without Russian contributions, according to Manber. He also pointed out that it is accurate that maintaining the ISS without Russia would be extremely expensive, estimated to be in the tens of billions of dollars.

The future of the ISS, whether with or without Russia, hinges on Congress's approval, which could pose a challenge after recent events in Europe. Historically, the ISS has received strong backing from key Congress members, and prior to Russia's invasion, many in the space industry anticipated its continued operation until 2030.

Dmitry Rogozin, the head of the Russian space agency, could face congressional scrutiny over his recent comments about the ISS. In a series of tweets, Rogozin questioned whether Russia would continue to cooperate on the ISS by the beginning of 2023, adding that U.S. sanctions could lead to "monstrous consequences," such as the ISS de-orbiting.

Dmitry is a loyal politician to Putin and his country, but if he continues to make political comments on Twitter about the current situation, it could lead to space agencies becoming politically involved. Congress might then question why they are working with that agency.

Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, who usually avoids discussing space issues, has commented on the ISS conundrum and tweeted that it's time to replace the Russians on the International Space Station.

Manber also highlighted that European partners have traditionally been the main supporters of cooperation with Russia in space. However, if Germany, France, Italy, and other countries are struggling through the winter of 2024 due to their dependence on Russia for energy, they may not be as enthusiastic about cooperation with Russia.

Trade

The global space industry involves significant contributions from both Russia and Ukraine, with each country engaging in the purchase and sale of various space-related products, including rockets and spacecraft components.

According to Manber, the major manufacturers in Russia heavily rely on Western electronic components for their launch vehicles and other components of their contribution to the ISS. It is possible that, without much consideration from the Biden administration, these sanctions could force Russia to withdraw from the ISS program.

Antares rocket, built and assembled in Ukraine, is an example of U.S. companies manufacturing in that country. The first stage is constructed in Ukraine and the rocket is powered by Russian-made RD-181 engines.

Northrop Grumman did not respond to CNBC's requests for comment on potential Antares supply chain disruptions, but the company has previously warned shareholders in disclosures that "unstable geopolitical conditions, including in Russia and Ukraine," are among its risks.

The growing space industry in the U.S. has been facing scrutiny from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) due to foreign national entrepreneurs and investors. Both space transportation firm SpaceX and launch company Blue Origin have come under investigation. In the case of Momentus, Russian founder Mikhail Kokorich was forced to divest his ownership of the company, and Firefly Aerospace's main backer, Ukrainian investor Max Polyakov, said earlier this month that he was pushed out by CFIUS. U.S. private equity firm AE Industrial Partners is expected to acquire a significant stake from Polyakov's Noosphere Ventures.

The United States has taken strong action with Momentus and Firefly to ensure that undesirables do not participate in providing space services to the government, according to Manber. The current crisis is likely to intensify the fears of American agencies regarding who is involved in commercial space activities.

Crew transportation with SpaceX, Soyuz

Since the retirement of the Space Shuttle, the U.S. had been relying solely on Russia to transport astronauts to the ISS for nine years. However, in 2020, SpaceX's Crew Dragon spacecraft delivered NASA astronauts under the Commercial Crew program, marking the beginning of the company's regular flights to the ISS and ending the U.S.'s dependence on Russia.

Manber stated that Commercial Crew is invaluable and it is hard to imagine relying on Russia as much as we did for ferrying our astronauts and cargo today.

Terry Virts, a retired NASA astronaut, flew on Russia's Soyuz spacecraft during the U.S. gap in access to the ISS. In 2015, he tweeted an image of Russia bombing Ukraine from space, which he took the year after the 2014 annexation of Crimea. He later shared his experience in an interview with CNBC.

"From space, bombs at nighttime appear red and flash," Virts stated.

It's a devastating day to see Russia launch an invasion of Ukraine, Virts said. He emphasized that "hanging out with the Russian cosmonauts was my favorite part of my time in space and training in Russia was my favorite part of the whole mission."

"I fear that we've reached a point that requires open discussion. When we publicly state the actions of Putin, we must address that boundary," Virts stated.

NASA and Roscosmos have yet to send a cosmonaut on SpaceX's Crew Dragon, but they are working towards an agreement that would see Anna Kikina from Russia flying on the Crew-5 mission in the second half of this year. As part of the deal, a NASA astronaut is expected to fly on a future Soyuz mission. However, this partnership is at risk as NASA wants to continue the arrangement, which could lead to further complications.

Manber stated, "The question is how much heat Congress will put on NASA."

Private space stations won’t be ready by 2024

The possibility of a space station gap is a reality that NASA and the space industry must confront due to the potential for the ISS not to continue beyond 2024, according to Manber.

In late 2020, NASA granted over $400 million in contracts under the Commercial LEO Destinations (CLD) project to three private space stations, including Nanoracks, which is developing a space station called Starlab. Notably, Manber, a part of Voyager Space, is the majority shareholder of X.O. Markets, the parent company of Nanoracks.

The earliest any private space stations could become operational is 2027, which may be years after the ISS falls out of orbit if Russia does not continue as a partner. While Manber believes that the private sector will provide the majority of funding for each private space station, he emphasizes the need for the White House and Congress to quickly support the CLD project.

To prevent the loss of low Earth orbit to the Russians and Chinese, we must expedite government funding and secure congressional support, as stated by Manber.