The retirement trust fund of Social Security may deplete in nine years, and here's how the next U.S. president might handle it.

The retirement trust fund of Social Security may deplete in nine years, and here's how the next U.S. president might handle it.
The retirement trust fund of Social Security may deplete in nine years, and here's how the next U.S. president might handle it.
  • In nine years, the trust fund that Social Security uses to fund retirement benefits may run out of money.
  • The upcoming U.S. president, either Vice President Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, may tackle that issue.
  • We have information about their views on the program's future.

The impending funding crisis of the Social Security Administration in the next decade will be inherited by the next U.S. president, whether it is Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.

Over 67 million Americans receive Social Security payments monthly, which provide financial support for seniors, disabled individuals, and survivors of beneficiaries. However, the future of the Social Security Administration remains uncertain due to ongoing concerns.

With an increase of more than 11,200 Americans turning 65 daily, the Social Security program is facing a shortfall as there are not enough workers contributing to cover the rise in benefit payments.

In the event of a shortfall, Social Security relies on its trust funds, which are reserved for covering benefits and operational expenses.

The Social Security trust fund, which funds retirement benefits, is projected to be depleted in 2033, and only 79% of benefits may be payable, according to the program's trustees.

The typical retired individual would experience a reduction of approximately $403 to their current average monthly pension of $1,920.

A recent CNBC poll revealed that most Americans consider Social Security as a crucial issue that will influence their voting decision in November.

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Both Trump and Harris have pledged to safeguard Social Security benefits.

To restore the program's solvency, changes such as benefit cuts or tax increases may be necessary. However, some experts argue that the candidates have not yet provided specific details on how to address the shortfall in their discussions.

No one is stepping forward to declare that the retirement program will be insolvent in nine years, which could result in a 20% reduction in benefits for all participants, according to Jason Fichtner, chief economist at the Bipartisan Policy Center and executive director of the Alliance for Lifetime Income's Retirement Income Institute.

Trump promises no taxes on Social Security benefits

Trump has proposed a plan on the campaign trail to reduce taxes on Social Security benefits for retirees, allowing them to keep more of their checks.

Trump wrote on Truth Social that seniors should not be taxed on their Social Security benefits on July 31.

A recent ABC News/Ipsos poll found 85% of voters support the idea.

Up to 85% of their benefits are subject to federal income tax for retirees, based on their income levels.

The amount of taxes retirees pay on benefits is determined by a formula known as combined income, which calculates the sum of adjusted gross income, nontaxable interest, and half of Social Security benefits.

Couples with combined incomes between $32,000 and $44,000 may pay taxes on up to 50% of their benefits, while those with incomes over $44,000 may be taxed on up to 85% of their benefits.

If an individual's income is between $25,000 and $34,000, they may be liable for taxes on up to 50% of their benefits. If their income is more than $34,000, up to 85% of their benefits may be taxable.

Over time, more beneficiaries are paying taxes on their benefit income due to the stability of the thresholds.

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget states that ending taxes on Social Security benefits would move the insolvency date of Social Security's trust fund closer by over one year.

The Social Security Administration has announced a 2.5% COLA for 2025. The House may force a vote on a bill that affects pensioners' Social Security benefits. 72% of Americans are concerned that Social Security will run out in their lifetime.

According to Howard Gleckman, senior fellow at the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, it may not significantly impact retirees' budgets.

According to Gleckman, the "vast majority" of retirees with a median household income of about $50,000 pay little to no taxes on their Social Security benefits.

The Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center's research found that exempting taxes on benefits would mostly benefit individuals with incomes between $63,000 and $200,000.

While the top 20% of households would see an average tax cut of about $1,400 after the elimination of taxes on Social Security benefits, they would see an average tax increase of $6,500 with Trump's plans to impose tariffs on imports.

According to Gleckman, the net effect of Trump's actions, including tariffs, is likely to result in increased taxes for retirees, despite some potential benefits from repealing the tax on Social Security benefits.

No comment was received from the Trump campaign by the press deadline.

Harris wants 'wealthiest Americans' to 'pay their fair share'

The Harris campaign's economic plan aims to ensure the sustainability of Social Security and Medicare by increasing taxes on corporations and the wealthiest Americans.

In both budget proposals and the State of the Union, President Biden has advocated for increasing the contributions of high earners to the program.

Democratic candidate Harris would restore solvency to the program as president.

The Social Security payroll tax is paid by both employers and employees, with a maximum taxable wage of $168,600 in 2024. Self-employed individuals pay 12.4% of their wages, while top earners with $1 million in gross annual wage income stopped contributing to the program as of March 2, according to the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

The Washington Democrats have suggested reinstating taxes on earnings over $400,000 or $250,000 in separate proposals, and possibly increasing taxes on investment income. These tax hikes would enhance the program's financial stability and enable some benefit enhancements, as per the proposals.

If Harris adheres to the $400,000 threshold set by the Biden administration, her Social Security proposal will not affect the majority of households, as around 95% to 98% of households earn less than that amount.

Mia Ehrenberg, campaign spokeswoman, stated that Vice President Harris and Governor Walz are committed to reducing expenses while safeguarding and enhancing Social Security and Medicare.

Older Americans may feel effects of reform

To avoid a sudden depletion of Social Security funds, any proposed reforms must be phased in more rapidly as the depletion dates approach.

Fichtner suggests that individuals aged 55 and above, who are often excluded from Social Security reform discussions that involve increasing the retirement age, may also be impacted by any modifications.

"Fichtner stated that once you reach 55, it is difficult to alter your retirement plan. However, with the impending trust fund depletion and the significant magnitude of the issue, it is uncertain whether we can financially protect them."

It is uncertain how much a new president can achieve on Social Security, regardless of who is elected.

To pass Social Security reform, both parties would need to agree on a measure with 60 votes in the Senate.

It is possible that lawmakers may address the issue at the last minute, according to experts.

"As the insolvency date approaches, the benefit reductions must become steeper and quicker, and the tax increases must become more significant and faster, making the situation even more difficult, according to Gleckman."

by Lorie Konish

Investing