The election between Trump and Harris could impact your tax situation.

The election between Trump and Harris could impact your tax situation.
The election between Trump and Harris could impact your tax situation.
  • Both Trump and Harris have proposed tax changes that could impact millions of Americans as they reveal their economic agendas.
  • The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 enacted trillions in expiring tax breaks that the next president will have to confront.
  • Both candidates have proposed tax cuts and increases that require congressional approval.

Both Trump and Harris have proposed tax changes that could impact millions of Americans as they reveal their economic agendas.

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, or TCJA, enacted by Trump will expire after 2025, and more than 60% of taxpayers could see higher taxes in 2026 without Congress taking action to extend them.

Among other expiring provisions, there are lower federal income tax brackets, a higher standard deduction, a larger child tax credit, and more generous estate and gift tax exemptions.

Experts are against the idea of no taxes on tips, as it could lead to inflation and reduced wages for workers.

The gap between the political discourse surrounding the 2017 tax law and the practical implications that both parties will encounter in the upcoming year, according to Andrew Lautz, associate director for the Bipartisan Policy Center's economic policy program.

Both parties are likely to agree to extend trillions in tax cuts, but negotiations could be challenging due to concerns about the federal budget deficit.

The Bipartisan Policy Center estimates that extending TCJA provisions and subsidized premiums for marketplace health insurance could result in nearly $5 trillion in increased federal deficits over a 10-year period.

Here's a breakdown of where each candidate stands on tax policy.

Plans to extend Trump's tax cuts

The campaign announced on Monday that Trump intends to maintain the individual and corporate tax cuts implemented through TCJA.

During an event in York, Pennsylvania, on Monday, he briefly mentioned his tax agenda, which was in contrast to the Democratic National Convention. In his speech, he pledged to provide "big tax cuts for families and small businesses."

Lael Brainard, President Joe Biden's top economic advisor, voiced support for partial extensions of TCJA in May, while Harris hasn't directly addressed the topic during her 2024 campaign.

Brainard stated that in order to attain a more equitable tax system, it is not feasible to renew the expiring Trump tax cuts for individuals with incomes exceeding $400,000.

Neither the Trump nor the Harris campaign provided a comment in response to CNBC's inquiry.

Proposed tax increases

The budget deficit will be addressed by both candidates, who have suggested revenue-raising measures. However, Congress must approve any changes to tax laws, which may be difficult due to potential changes in House and Senate control.

On Monday, the Harris campaign announced plans to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from the current 21%, which was permanently enacted through the TCJA. This move could potentially reduce the deficit by $1 trillion over a ten-year period, as estimated by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

Trump has proposed imposing broad tariffs on imported goods.

The Tax Policy Center estimates that Trump's proposed tariffs on Chinese goods could decrease the average after-tax U.S. household income by approximately $1,800 in 2025.

Trump refuted the claim that tariffs would harm American consumers during his event on Monday, stating, "Tariffs are a tax on a foreign country."

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Tax cuts on tips, Social Security

Both campaigns have proposed eliminating income tax on tip income, with Harris announcing her plan on Aug. 10, two months after Trump introduced his.

Although Congress has some bipartisan support for the idea, policy experts have criticized it, arguing that it may encounter administrative obstacles and potential misuse.

As policy experts, the key issue for us is determining the underlying policy justification, according to Garrett Watson, senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation.

Trump has also advocated for tax-free Social Security income. A CNBC poll indicates that Social Security is a crucial concern for voters during this election, with 1,001 registered voters surveyed from July 31 to August 4.

Child tax credit expansion

On Friday, Harris unveiled an economic plan that included an enhanced child tax credit worth up to $6,000 in total tax relief for families with newborn children, among other priorities.

Sen. JD Vance of Ohio proposed a $5,000 child tax credit, and her plan was announced less than a week later.

At the time, a Trump campaign official stated to CNBC that Trump would contemplate a substantial increase in the child tax credit that benefits American families.

by Kate Dore, CFP®

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