Raising the child tax credit to $5,000 could be challenging for Vance.

• JD Vance, Ohio's Sen. and Trump's former GOP running mate, advocates for increasing the child tax credit to $5,000.
• According to Garrett Watson, senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation, Vance's plan would represent a "significant increase" in benefits compared to the current $2,000 per eligible child for 2024.
• If Congress does not act, the maximum child tax credit will decrease from $2,000 to $1,000 after 2025 due to the expiration of Trump's 2017 tax cuts.

The GOP running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, aims to double the child tax credit, but policy experts predict that the increase may be challenging to implement.

"On "Face the Nation" on CBS Sunday, he stated that he would like to see a $5,000 child tax credit per child, but it would require working with Congress to determine its feasibility and possibility."

According to Garrett Watson, senior policy analyst and modeling manager at the Tax Foundation, Vance's idea would represent a "relatively large expansion" compared to the current benefit worth up to a maximum of $2,000 per child for 2024.

The Senate failed to pass the expanded child tax credit. Here's what it means for families.

If Congress does not act, the maximum child tax credit will decrease from $2,000 to $1,000 after 2025 due to the expiration of Trump's 2017 tax cuts.

In 2021, families received up to half of the increased maximum child tax credit, which was either $3,000 or $3,600, depending on the child's age, via monthly payments.

In 2021, the child poverty rate reached a historic low of 5.2%, largely due to credit expansion, according to a Columbia University analysis.

Senate failed to pass a child tax credit expansion

Senate Republicans rejected an expanded child tax credit that was approved by the House in January with bipartisan support, prompting Vance to make his comments.

The bill, if enacted, would have enhanced access to child tax credits and retroactively increased the refundable portion of the tax break, potentially triggering IRS refund checks.

The vote was held by Democrats in response to Vance's pro-family stance, but the bill was predicted to fail due to the lack of consensus from Senate Republicans on credit design.

During a recent Senate vote, Vance was absent but described it as a "show vote" in a CBS interview, stating that it wouldn't have passed even if he had been present.

National Economic Advisor Lael Brainard stated that President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris will persist in their efforts to increase the child tax credit.

Trump's campaign did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.

How Vance's $5,000 child tax credit might work

Richard Auxier, a principal policy associate for the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, stated that the child tax credit is a top priority for Democrats nationwide.

The challenge for Vance's idea for expansion is that lawmakers are increasingly concerned about the federal budget deficit.

According to Watson from the Tax Foundation, increasing the child tax credit to $5,000 could cost approximately $3 trillion over a decade.

Of course, the immediate question is how to navigate the cost, in addition to proposed changes such as extensions for Trump's expiring tax cuts, he said.

What are the details of Vance's proposed child tax credit design, and how might it work, including eligibility, work requirements, and income phase-outs?

Watson stated that many Republicans are highly skeptical of any proposal to remove work requirements from the phase-in of the child tax credit, as they only want families who are employed to claim the credit.

As the 2025 deadline nears, Vance's proposal could reignite the debate among conservative and Republican circles.